Merry Christmas

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“She will give birth to a son, and you are to give him the name Jesus, because he will save his people from their sins.” Mathew 1:21 NIV

Is Mike Huckabee 2008′s Len Munsil?

An interesting question has surfaced as presidential candidate Mike Huckabee surges in the race for Republican nominee. If you pay attention to the blogs or talk radio hosts like Hugh Hewitt, the discussion has become Mike Huckabee is unelectable as a conservative evangelical Christian Republican. Hewitt has gone as far as saying that Huckabee will be eaten alive by whoever wins the Democratic nomination.

That leads to the question of whether Mike Huckabee would be the 2008 version of Len Munsil?

In the 2006 Arizona gubernatorial contest, conservative, Christian, evangelical, activist, Len Munsil, lost to incumbent liberal Democrat Governor, Janet Napolitano in a landside.

Given Mike Huckabee’s attractiveness to cultural conservatives, is history bound to repeat itself at the national level as Huckabee?

Running on his record.

     The Arizona Federation of Taxpayers has followed up their successful luncheon with their 2007 Legislative Scorecard. LD-26 has the distinction of being represented by the lowest scoring Republican on the list. Some people talk about Pete Hershberger running a better campaign than the last opponent of Al Melvin. Not sure it will matter when he has the lowest score in the state for his party. Past years will be little help (his scores are comparably low) and the primary election will probably take place before the 2008 scores are published. I am not sure how a person wins with such a big-spender reputation.

Arizona Man/Woman of the Year Nominations

As we close out another year, Sonoran Alliance is asking you for nominations for Arizona Man/Woman of the Year. This can be an individual or a group of individuals who have demonstrated political courage or will in the face of adversity. 

Here are the nominees:

Senator Jon Kyl
Senator John McCain
Maricopa County Andrew Thomas
Speaker Jim Weiers
Senator Ron Gould
Sheriff Joe Arpaio
Jon Altmann
Lisa James
Randy Pullen
Arizona National Guardsmen

Now time for comments…

Explains why he is not on the ballot.

Tancredo to drop out of the race. Neither BRC or KAET polls were reporting numbers for Tancredo so it is hard to say if there will be any impact on the race in Arizona.

Phoenix Taxpayer-Funded Art

Janet Echelman Art Project

It appears in the midst of huge budget cuts, the City of Phoenix has decided to drop $2.5 Million on a contract with Caid Industries out of Tucson to construct an sculpture by Massachusetts artist, Janet Echelman. (Read Agenda)

According to the City of Phoenix government website the council approved Item 82 by a vote of 5-3 on Tuesday.

The project is scheduled for completion in November, 2008 but is likely to be delayed into 2009.

Now don’t get me wrong. I love the arts. But do Phoenicians really want their tax dollars be spent on art projects in the middle of a budget crisis?

Three Wings – One GOP?

It has long been held that the GOP coalition is made up of three constituencies: Social Conservatives, Fiscal Conservatives and International Conservatives. The latest NBC/WSJ poll appears to play this out. 

Giuliani and Romney are locked in a dead heat at 20% each. Huckabee is within the margin of interest at 17% while John McCain is trailing at 14%.

Mayor Giuliani and Governor’s Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee represent these constituencies: Giuliani = International (National Security) Conservatives; Mitt Romney = Fiscal Conservatives; Huckabee = Social Conservatives with John McCain taking up the loose ends on a handful of each constituency.

The big question is which candidate will manage to pull each constituency together?

LD-26 update.

     It looks like there will be a contested race for the Republican primary for the LD-26 House. The three announced candidates are Trent Humphries, Vic Williams, and Marilyn Zerull.

     Trent owns a local computer business and has a young family. His campaign seems to be the most organized. His campaign manager is the well-connected and experienced Kevin Herring. Media contact for the campaign is Mike Cole (248-1258) who works for a local radio station. The campaign also has a long time Republican activist as the volunteer coordinator and another person as the marketing expert. Look for Trent to run a very competitive campaign that will appeal to Independents as well as the traditional Republicans. We do not yet have a web site for Trent but have been informed that one will be coming.

     The next candidate is Vic Williams. Vic has been very active with the party and currently serves as the treasurer for the county committee as well as first vice-chair for LD-26. It was speculated that Vic would relinquish his position(s) within the party to focus on his race but it now looks like he will retain his party titles. Early indications are that Vic will run a more centrist campaign than the other two candidates. Again, no web site that we know of at this time.

     Marilyn Zerull is the final candidate on the Republican side. Marilyn has been active within the party as a precinct committeewoman and as a state delegate. She lives in the northern part of the district where Republicans have a distinct advantage in registration. Marilyn is running as a Reagan Republican and has also assembled a solid campaign staff for her race. Marilyn has an early version of her web site at http://www.marilynzerull.com/.

     The LD-26 senate primary is shaping up to be a classic showdown between the conservative and liberal wings of the party with Al Melvin vs. Pete Hershberger. It looks like Hershberger will be going with traditional fundraising. Because of clean elections the more money he raises the better-funded Melvin’s campaign will be. We do not see how Pete closes the gap by which Al won in the last primary against a less liberal opponent than Pete.

     The Democrats appear to be running two candidates for the house race. Don Jorgensen has already filed and we expect Lena Saradnik to run again. Despite her lack-luster first term in office look for Charlene Pesquiera to run again for the senate.

Do Conversions Matter?

I’m one who tends to give the benefit of the doubt when a formerly pro-abortion Republican proclaims a pro-life conversion. I’ve seen it happen many times to the advantage of the party but most importantly, to the advantage of the unborn.

One needs to look no further than Norma McCorvey (Jane Roe of Roe v. Wade) or Dr. Bernard Nathanson who once was the biggest abortionist in New York. Both underwent remarkable and miraculous pro-life conversions.

In the case of Mitt Romney, I think he’s seen the light although I’m still  cautiously optimistic.

Today, the Boston Herald printed a story and photo of Governor Romney and his wife in attendance at a Planned Parenthood event in 1994. Photos like this give me chills – not the winter-wind-on-the-back-of-your-neck type of chills but the staring-at-evil type of chills. (Planned Parenthood is the largest killer of babies in the United States.)

Nevertheless, the photo was taken in 1994 – almost 14 years ago – and that’s a lot of time for someone to figure out the sanctity of life is human rights principle.

I’m not going to post the photo here on Sonoran Alliance but rather just the link.

My question to all our readers is this: does a photo/story like this about a politician running for office really hurt his/her credibility on the life issue? Are you willing to give the former governor the benefit of the doubt? Does his pro-life conversion matter in 2008? Finally, in lining all the pro-life candidates up side by side, would you prefer someone with a longstanding history over someone newly converted?

Arizona Presidential Preference Election Ballot Out

This morning, Secretary of State Jan Brewer conducted the official drawing that established the order of candidates on the February 5th, 2008 Presidential Preference Election ballot.

In addition to all the crackpots, here is the order of the real candidates:

#3 – Mitt Romney
#4 – Fred Thompson
#8 – Ron Paul
#11 – Mike Huckabee
#16 – John McCain
#17 – Duncan Hunter
#20 – Alan Keyes
#24 – Rudy Giuliani

A link to the listing can be found at the Secretary of State’s website.

Update. It would appear that Tom Tancredo will not be on the ballot in Arizona. Tancredo has decided to drop out of the race. We added Ambassador Keyes to the list at #20.