Sun 30 Dec 2007
Rather than present our predictions for 2008, we’d like to hear from our readers. This is your opportunity to lay it all out on the table and tell us who you think the biggest political winners and losers will be for 2008.
Who will win the Arizona Presidential Preference Election? Who will the GOP Presidential nomination? Will the State Legislature be retained by the Republicans? Who will be caught in a scandal? Who will resign? Who will be appointed? Will there be a recession? Will the housing market recover? Who will close their doors? Who will open? What will be the biggest trends?
And in case you’re wondering, at this time next year, we’ll review whose crystal ball was more accurate? Maybe your prediction will be history in the making?
So let the predictions begin and feel free to announce your long-shot along with your sure-shot!
Happy New Year!
December 30th, 2007 at 10:31 am
This sounds like good, clean fun for all! Here are my predictions…and I stand ready to crow (or eat some) a year from now!:
1. Obama will defeat Romney in the presidential election by a significant margin, but not a landslide. As many have predicted, four Western states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada) hold the key to victory for the Democrat and he also carries Midwest states (like Ohio) that went for Bush in 2004.
2. Ron Paul will mount a third-party effort that will siphon votes away from the GOP.
3. At least one of the parties will have a woman on the ticket for VP. Gov. Sibelius of Kansas is a possibility for the Democrats and Sen. Hutchinson of Texas a possibility for the GOP, but I am leaving some names out, I’m certain.
4. Democrats will sizably increase the number of seats they control in the US Senate, but only slightly increase their margin in the US House.
5. Rep. Giffords will win a tight race for re-election against Tim Bee, but Harry Mitchell will not win re-election in his Phoenix-area district. I see Schweikert as the likely winner of that race.
6. Republicans will retain their control of both houses of the Arizona Legislature, but their margin of control will slightly decrease.
7. Gov. Napolitano will not accept any job in the Obama administration because the thought of turning her current job over to Jan Brewer is a non-starter based on their mutual dislike for each other and the likely results if the GOP controlled the Legislature and the Governor’s Office.
8. Little will (or can) be done to save spring training in Tucson and the White Sox and Rockies will be gone shortly, followed by the D-Backs.
9. Democrats will not retain their current leadership in either the US House or Senate, perhaps both. More effective and articulate leaders than Reid or Pelosi will be sought. President-elect Obama will quietly signal his support for this effort.
10. Lute Olson will NOT return to coach UA basketball next season.
December 30th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Rex,
Excellent analysis. Two disagreements. Ron Paul stays in the Republican Party and encourages his supporters to stay engaged and return the party to its original promises.
The Dems will do well in their congressional races but will not gain in legislative seats and will probably lose seats.
Here are my predictions.
1. If McCain wins Arizona it will be by such a small margin that he drops out of the race not long after February 5th.
2. Fred Thompson does not win a single state through February 5th. He announces he is too bored (and boring) to continue campaigning and that his wife will take over campaigning in public from now on so Fred can concentrate on doing more YouTube videos.
3. Arizona’s economy will survive employer sanctions and do just fine. Marginally profitable, non-critical businesses will go under and profitable, important businesses will thrive by offering decent benefits and a positive working environment. No more 99¢ cheeseburgers.
4. Bruce Ash will be reelected in January as Arizona’s committeeman to the RNC.
5. Senator Kyl will not speak at the 2008 State Republican meeting in January.
6. Bob Lord gives John Shadegg the race of his life. The incumbent wins but the results are much closer than Shadegg expected.
7. Sydney Hay wins the GOP primary for CD-1.
8. Rio Nuevo changes its name to Tucson Live and no one notices.
9. Drinking Liberally Tucson and the Pima Republican Cigar Club hold a joint event that is the best political party of the year.
10. Brad Roach defeats Barbara LaWall by 15 votes.
December 30th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
OVD,
I hope you are right with some of your picks, especially 1, 3, and 5. However, due to some inside information, I will guarantee that number 4 will not occur. Bruce Ash will NOT be re-elected as National Committeeman in January.
In fact, politics and political realities make it a sure thing that he will not even run for re-election to that position in January.
There will be more on this in the next few days.
December 30th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
Ben,
Can’t wait. Does this have anything to do with http://www.ashforarizona.com
December 30th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
I can also guarantee Bruce Ash will not be re-elected to the RNC in January. One of the ‘political realities’ is that our National Committeeman is not up for re-election in January. That occurs at the State Convention, held in late spring.
My prediction for 2008: Duncan Hunter(like another dark horse, Ronald Reagan in 1980) will come out of New Hampshire a strong winner and go on to take the nomination. See Senator Bob Smith’s endorsement (Mr. Republican of New Hampshire)at http://www.gohunter08.org.
December 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Make that http://www.gohunter08.com!
December 30th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
Duncan Hunter?! Wow… I suppose it would be too easy to predict that Duncan Hunter will NOT win New Hampshire? How about Duncan Hunter will not finish in the top five in New Hampshire?
December 30th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
1. Gabrielle Giffords defeats Tim Bee in a close race. By the time the election occurs, no one remembers “Resign to Run.” Derek Tidball scores points in the debates as an intelligent, good looking Independent that hurts Bee more than Giffords. Tidball does significantly better than expected with a fraction of the other campaign budgets.
2. Harry Mitchell does not prevail.
3. The Patriots complete a perfect season.
4. Ron Paul does NOT follow GOP HQ and DOES run a third campaign, but not as a Libertarian. His choice for a VP is extraordinary, intelligent, and jaw dropping. He runs the most successful third candidate campaign in the history of the race.
5. College campuses prefer Paul and Obama, but neither get their preference. Hillary’s infrastructure defeats Obama for the blue nod. The struggle for the red nod is a total fiasco. Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani go at each other in a bloodbath that leaves McCain standing. Despite the foaming mouths of the Hillary haters, she chooses a strong VP and wins the White House (For the record, your humble blogger is no Hillary fan either).
6. Tucson remains a low wage town and TREO recruits not one company with an average wage over $11/hour.
7. The employer sanctions bill faces politicized enforcement. The symbolic impact of its bark far exceeds its bite and many workers without papers willingly leave for other states or the border. Employers in fear dismiss employees without papers. Few companies face real enforcement, and those that do are the small that cannot fight back. The large firms find a way to work the system and keep their illegals, probably via false documents.
8. New Zealand bans the advertising of prescription drugs, leaving the US as the only developed country that allows the practice. More committed to corporations than citizens, the US continues to permit $40 BILLION in prescription drug marketing directly to the public, almost half of it for sexual performance enhancement.
9. College tuition prices continue to advance well over CPI. The wealthy privates follow Harvard’s lead and announce aid programs for middle and higher income students. Public schools cannot do this, and most students graduate at higher and higher levels of debt. Some graduate with burdens exceeding $50,000.
10. Iraq stability improves but control splits into the three partitions with the Kurds being the most independent, freaking Turkey. We hardly withdraw anyone and US presence remains.
11. Gasoline rises to $4/gallon by 12/08. Friends of Eggplant and Cheney secure sweet oil deals with Iraqi Kurds.
12. Afghanistan gets worse.
13. We don’t catch Osama Bin Laden.
14. The 2008 stock market stinks. The well diversified lose a little. The aggressive get creamed unless they are brilliant. Dow drops to 11K if not lower and unemployment spikes. The economy becomes a major election issue which serves Clinton. The poor, the uninsured, and Latinos vote for her in droves. The GOP is losing the economically oppressed, which is on a trajectory towards the majority.
15. China unveils its automobile for export to the US. The price is under $10,000. People go crazy. Politically incorrect, sales begin very slowly, but they begin. Eventually greed prevails.
16. 95% of us gain weight.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
Does that $10,000 car from China use oil based lead paint? I sure hope so because the water based paint on my U.S. made truck stinks.
December 31st, 2007 at 12:11 am
1. Presidential politics: 2008 is the year of the rat and this is year will be one of reckoning for the Clintons. Mrs. Clinton’s Annus Horribilis begins with a Huck-Edwards win Iowa. Clinton goes negative and her campaign bleeds supporters. Clinton starts to cheat. Obama and Edwards call her on it and by February she is done. She like Kucinich will run all the way to the primary and she like Kucinich loses to Edwards. In a one on one debate, Edwards exposes the naivte of Obama’s policy positions. Obama, another great idealist on the road to nowhere, starts his career in the Senate and discovers he can do great things(and great damage to the country) there. Hillary like Bloomberg runs a third party campaign, which she like Bloomberg loses to the GOP. Romney is out by South Carolina. McCain wins NH. Guilani’s Florida strategy doesn’t work and the GOP annoints McCain by Feb’s end. McCain and Liberman win the Presidency.
2. Ron Paul: Ron Paul stays in the GOP and makes a run for House Leadership and it goes nowhere. He becomes the Barry Goldwater of the dove (or wienie) wing of the Republican Party.
3. AZ: David Schweikert and Tim Bee win. Tidball will honor his campaign promise by April and drop out of the race if he is taking votes away from Bee. He may re-emerge in subsequent years and run for City Council or State House as a Republican, after he mends fences within the party. Look for Antenori and Gowan to win CD 30 and Paton for State Senate. The GOP gains ground but might not win the House and Senate. Look for Jim Talent of Missouri to organize the GOP for a 94 style takeover. Haley Barbour might come state politics to help the GOP congress.
4. Energy and Resources: Gas goes to $ 4 a barrell and public sentiment turns against environmentalists. The GOP coopts the Blue Dogs to ease regulations on exploration and energy. Amidst the Housing Bubble and rising copper prices, the AZ GOP ease restrictions on mining as Copper will return from its long exile over the politically dead body of Governor Napolitano to become the once and future King of AZ.
5. Air strikes into Iran and a new military power emerges in the Middle East – a pro-Western Iraq. Jan. 09 more Suunis will enter government and troop levels will stabilize to 30,000 thirty days after the election. May of 2008, Iranians will vote out Ahmednejad. A pro-west PM emerges, Rafsanjani who repudiates the mullahs by inviting the Shah’s son to return to Iran. Rafsanjani uses the Army and his popularity to remove the power of the mullahs. Condi Rice will meet with the new PM in Tehran and re-open the US Embassy after a 29 year vacancy. Look for an Iranian woman to win Miss World.
6. Look for Tucson’s Raytheon plant to make more Tomahawk missiles as the Musharraf government teeters toward anarchy and civil war. India hints at a pre-emptive nuclear first strike. The US intervenes and bolsters Musharraf. NATO air strikes into Wazirstan and Musharraf prosecuting a personal war on the ground – the war on terror heats up but with more US victories on the ground.
7. Likud will win the next round of elections and the very American looking Benjamin Netanyahu will lead the government. Arab government will repudiate the good work done at Annapolis. Israel will re-invade Gaza as Hamas holdouts promise a bloody conflict for the unsteady Israeli forces.
8. The Border fence gets built. SBInet is up and running. The Feds will pour more money into agents and technology and the BP swells to 30,000. The cartels will become more violent and more creative at bringing drugs into this country.
9. AZ style Employer Sanctions laws will win popularity in sister states especially the Western and Southern states. More and more illegal aliens will self-deport. But we will see more smuggling through US ports with more tragedies sadly.
10. A showdown emerges between Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Mayor Phil Gordon over the employer sanctions law. Phil blinks.
11. Though inflation is a big deal, 2008 will be a good year for stocks and the economy. Look for manufacturing to make a comeback as geopolitical instability in India and China force the US to re-examine its corporation laws and labor practices. 2008 will be the first year of the next decade where America enters the decade of normalcy as peace returns and these baby boomers retire and finally grow up.
12. Bush’s popularity returns as Iraq continues to be a non-story and the troops come home. Look for Bush to continue to adopt a “Give Hell Harry!” strategy at vetoing more democrat pork. Bush’s approval ratings will be over 50% by the time of the inauguration.
13. Look for another judicial appointment to the SCOTUS either Ginsburg or Stevens (or both) will leave the court. Bush will have another judicial fight on his hand. Ted Olson will be his nominee. Kennedy and Schumer will lead the smear machine against Olson. Olson whose wife died on 9/11 will capture the sympathy of most Americans, further alienating the support of the Pelosi-Reid Congress. With Olson’s elevation, tongues will wag about overturning Roe.
14. A power struggle will emerge between Putin and his successor, Dmitry Medvedev and things will not go as smoothly as he anticipates. Russia will continue to challenge America by attacking its surrogate the UK. PM Gordon Brown will mismanage the incident and look for William Hague to replace him.
December 31st, 2007 at 12:13 am
Let’s see:
1) Employee sanctions gets a rough start with some uncertainty about who is under the law; new hires versus existing employees. Law suits are filed by employers who have been “targeted” for hiring practices of employees previous to the law. Meanwhile, cash only businesses develop and thrive in predominantly minority neighborhoods.
Dems lose some seats in the House (Mitchell and Giffords) but retain control, Senate goes to the R’s. Kyl is Majority Leader.
2) Schools report large numbers of students not returning after Christmas break and teachers, under contract, teach to half filled rooms.
3) Ron Paul unable to draw enough votes to register drops out after super duper Tuesday but encourages his followers to stay within the Republican party. He endorses no one and encourages them to vote for the underdog to send a message. It splits the vote and is of no consequence.
4) Huckabee and Romney split Iowa, Thompson comes in third with McCain a close fourth. New Hampshire goes McCain, Romney in second, and Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson all split. By Michigan, Romney is losing his luster, Huckabee’s jokes are getting old, and the holes in both their armor is showing. Their numbers drop steadily.
5) The nomination goes to either Thompson or McCain.
6) The Dems go with Hillary but she is battle weary and cranky by fall.
7) What was believed to be the devil you know in Hillary became a devil we thought we knew and are scared to death of…R’s win and shrill hill goes back to the Senate.
9) China has great social unrest as the people demand a political voice. Their strong capitalistic desire for self governance sends shock waves thru the communist establishment as control is steadily diminished.
10) Big changes at the state legislature: Russell Pearce runs for but loses Jeff Flake’s seat. John Huppenthal runs and loses in the primary for State Sup’t of Public Instruction. Linda Gray retires. John Nelson runs against Bob Blendu and wins. Speaker Weiers is targeted for defeat and escapes with scars but retains his seat.
11) Secretary Mary Peters is a regular on the speaking circuit and becomes the favorite to run on the GOP ticket for Governor. Phil goes down due to a giant jellyfish bite.
Here is the really out on the edge prediction…
Plastic bottles from bottled water becomes such an environmental nuisance that a deposit is placed on them. Twenty-five cents per bottle redeemable upon return. They go out of fashion and we all laugh about paying so much for water when we could get it from the tap all along.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:22 am
CD 30? Illegal immigration has really resulted in a huge population increase.
1) Russell Pearce and Janet Napolitano decide to have a tennis match (a la Riggs and King) to settle who will set the legislative agenda for the year. Ticket and PPV revenue exceed wildest expectations and suddenly there is enough money to completely pave the Phoenix metro area AND make a cross town freeway in Tucson. While Tucsonans can finally get across town, a bypass is built and Tucson begins its transformation to a ghost town–a change that makes Tucsonans very happy that people will stop moving here. The tennis match is not without controversy as all parties agree in advance that the lines on the court are symbolic of conception so the “in or out” calls become very hotly contested between Republican and Democrat line judges.
2) The building suspense of the “Bee decision” climaxes when the Bee camp stages a “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” set, complete with Regis Philbin, asking Tim if this is his “final answer” on his decision to run.
3) Lute Olson, rested after surgery to create the world’s first “Bionic Coach” comes back to coach for 75 more years. Livengood immediately takes a year off for “Bionic Athletic Director” surgery so that he can be around to name Olson’s replacement to prove he can get it right.
4) Walgreens, deciding that having a store on every corner is not enough, embarks on a plan to place a Walgreens in every home. They sneak it in on Ron Glassman’s ordinance to plumb every home for gray water by changing “water” to “services” and the Tucson city attorney advises the city that they must allow a Walgreens in every home.
5) In N Out Burger moves into all the now-empty Walgreens locations. This proves to be a boon for Walgreens as now everyone in Tucson is on cholesterol lowering medicine.
6) Rio Nuevo collects its 500 millionth dollar in funding. Decides it can survive on the interest if it don’t spend any of the principal and retires into a very nice home in the foothills with a Summer home in the Hamptons.
7) September- Gabrielle Giffords wins her primary. Seemingly impossible, she wins an uncontested primary by a plurality, something her campaign staff finds difficult to explain.
9) Tucson tries to annex Mexico, a move the city council says is intended to solve the illegal immigration problem.
10) The Cardinals say that their stadium is an outdated piece of junk start a bidding war and Laveen ponies up one billion dollars for a new even statey of the arter more better stadium with retractable roof, field, glass bottomed sky boxes that hover over the field and move like the mobile cameras. Team colors changed to John Deere Green. Following suit, Mesa steals the Phoenix Suns and Quartzite steals the Coyotes.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:01 am
I don’t do predictions, except for the obvious. Anyone who thinks they can predict Arizona politics is smoking Crack.
Having said that:
- Giffords wins, but not without a lot of sweat.
- Mitchell – I hope he wins, but see above re I don’t do predictions.
- Pearce loses his primary, but unfortunately there’s no shortage of no-nothing isolationists on the Republican bench.
- Ds gain seats in the state House, and will either hold their own in the state Senate or pick up a seat – depending on whether the Rs nominate Pete Hershberger or Cap’n Al in LD26.
- The presidential race falls into the “I can’t predict it” category, but I agree with the guy up above who says Napolitano will never join a Democratic administration and turn the state over to Jan Brewer.
- Ann Kirkpatrick wins CD1 – maybe, but it might be more accurate to say that the Republican nominee loses.
- Independents will hold the key to Arizona’s political future. They will determine the fate of CDs 1, 5 & 8, and most Legislative Districts. Their numbers will rise, and both parties will turn themselves into pretzels in an effort to cater to them in 2010.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:44 am
Edwards wins Iowa in a major surprise, with the support of unions on the ground. Clinton given a stinging rebuke by the media afterwards about how her inevitable campaign lost when it should have won. Obama flounders like Dean did, but without the scream. Supporters of Obama reassess and break toward Edwards. In Nevada, Clinton barely edges Edwards, but it is close enough for him to build more momentum going into New Hampshire…and then the fun begins.
Huckabee comes a close close second to Romney. Romney wins NH, but viewed as media as a “so what” because he is Gov of the state below it. Huckabee holds on with his close showing. Showdown begins in South Carolina where religious conservatives flock to Huckabee over Romney…then the fun begins.
Giffords beats Bee or whomever runs in CD8. Bee’s previously unblemished record falls in the face of massive debt and necessary cuts to essential programs. He is forced to choose between the right wing of the party and appearing moderate. He makes the wrong choice.
Mitchell retains seat in CD5…but barely. Only because GOP in Maricopa nominate an extremist who doesn’t appeal to most moderates. Mitchell’s careful strateegery to appear moderate saves him in the end, even those liberal in the party swallow hard to support him.
Dems pick up Renzi’s seat. Kilpatrick wins.
Lord comes close to defeating Shaddegg, but loses to incumbent factor.
A bad bad day for the GOP. The story is extremism on immigration, less business support, less money this time around, and spread among so many candidates, forces a major loss.
In State Senate, Dems edge closer but do not take control of House and Senate. This is chocked up to the fault of the Dem party. They, again, miss a golden opportunity. Due to poor strategy, a lack of good candidates, and so many safe GOP districts. They come very close because the GOP is blamed for poor financial management that caused a 1.2 Billion dollar deficit in Arizona.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:35 am
Predictions:
1. Fred Thompson’s returns to “Law and Order”. Sam Waterson is declared missing, presumed dead.
2. Ron Paul is elected president of Mars, drafts Martian constitution, charges for air as “Martian constitution does not specifically state that air is a right”.
3. Russell Pearce accidentally forwards an e-mail from the Nation of Islam, is forced to resign after the public shaming he recieves for forwarding race-based propaganda.
4. Sheriff Joe invites time-machine, goes back in time, arrests own grandfather.
5. Hillary Clinton puts Bill out to stud.
6. Jenna Bush accidentally burns down the White House during wedding reception after spilling a Flaming Jaegerbomb.
7. JD Hayworth cotinues to plot comeback, sell water softeners.