An interesting question has surfaced as presidential candidate Mike Huckabee surges in the race for Republican nominee. If you pay attention to the blogs or talk radio hosts like Hugh Hewitt, the discussion has become Mike Huckabee is unelectable as a conservative evangelical Christian Republican. Hewitt has gone as far as saying that Huckabee will be eaten alive by whoever wins the Democratic nomination.
That leads to the question of whether Mike Huckabee would be the 2008 version of Len Munsil?
In the 2006 Arizona gubernatorial contest, conservative, Christian, evangelical, activist, Len Munsil, lost to incumbent liberal Democrat Governor, Janet Napolitano in a landside.
Given Mike Huckabee’s attractiveness to cultural conservatives, is history bound to repeat itself at the national level as Huckabee?
The fact that Huckabee is surging tells you something of his ability to get elected. A lot of Republicans stayed home in 2006. That year was the perfect storm from the War and Rumsfeld to to the immigration rebellion to Mark Foley, these the conditions the Republican Party hurt Munsil, Graf and Hayworth.
It’s unfair to label evangelical conservatives as unelectable as the career of President Bush has proven that conservative evangelicals are electable.
The question is “Is this conservative evangelical electable?” There are some things about Mike Huckabee that are unnerving. His swipes at Romney and his TV ad – the fact that he is from Hope, Arkansas, those things concern me. His campaign and I hate to admit it, but the Ron Raul campaign have energy and true believers. And whether Huckabee can maintain momentum in the light of mounting criticism like this one from George Will.
http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/580171.html
Caution: Will’s comments are blistering
Rush had something about that earlier this week. Supposedly the DNC is refraining from any attacks on him until after he wins the nomination. If it’s true, I can’t say I blame them. We could have done the same thing with Dean in 04, although most of that damage was self-inflicted.
As for Munsil, I don’t think his being an evangelical Christian activist had that much to do with him losing. So many forces were working against him, including, unfortunately, a big chunk of his own party. Arizona voters rarely vote out the incumbents (sorry, J.D.), and they weren’t about to do it with the state’s economy flying high. Under the right circumstances, I think Munsil would have been just fine.
The reason Huck Mikeabee will have trouble in a national election is because almost everyone has reasons NOT to vote for him. He can write off the blue states because of his background, and most of the red states precisely because he ISN’T a conservative. The fact that he is strongly pro-life should allow him to carry a handful of “bible belt” states, but I think he is weak on too many other issues to win anywhere else. I see him getting less than 75 electoral votes, even if he wins Texas.
Naw, Munsil had never been elected and though he had a powerful constituency, it proved less than adequate at the ballot box. Janet, meanwhile, moved to the right just enough. Or, more than enough, judging by her victory margin. I blame term limits, as she got a freebie with everyone knowing it was an open seat four years later.
I think evangelicals, if not all Christians, should take note at this time of year to acknowledge that presidential politics is not only not everything, it means precious little in our daily lives. Partly because Congress (ahem) and SCOTUS (ahem, ahem) are protecting us. It’s a confederacy of dunces. God Bless them.
Hello. State Senator Jack Harper, here. I would like to tell you why I am supporting Mike Huckabee and why I agreed to be the chairman in Arizona of the Huckabee For President committee.
I will begin by setting my credentials in order. I was the first legislator in the country to propose that the National Guard be stationed on the Arizona/ Mexico border. I line up with Tom Tancredo on nearly every issue. I have consistently been in the top four members of the legislature for fiscally-conservative stances. I stood with Ron Gould holding pigs at a press conference when leadership wanted to give away $150 million dollars of your money to private research. And, I whole-heartedly am supporting Mike Huckabee.
Former Governor Mike Huckabee is the only viable candidate that has a plan to control illegal immigration and has a consistent record on the “sanctity of life” and the Second Amendment. These three issues define our culture. Every right you enjoy rest the right to keep and bear arms. Would you trust anyone who ever took a position on gun ownership different than the NRA? I would not.
Mike Huckabee is more electable than given credit. Arkansas is a Democrat-controlled state, right down to the appointments on their slighted ethics commission. Despite having a legislature dominated by Democrats, Huckabee pushed for laws that defended the right to life. He was successful on many occasions. He won four state-wide elections despite the Clintons opposing him.
Mike Huckabee will win Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, and hopefully Arizona.
I encourage everyone to stand with Mike Huckabee as our nominee. Even if you supported someone else early on, you are always welcome in the Huckabee For President campaign.
State Senator Jack Harper
Arizona Chairman, Huckabee For President
(Paid for by Huckabee for President, Inc.)
What is not being said is that in Munsil’s case he broke his promise of not going negative and dirty. That put a bad taste in a lot of conservatives mouth, and his endorsment by McCain showed that he sold out.
Huckabee on the other hand has his environmental policy that is both conservative and green.
Huckabee believes that this country needs to change it’s medical system by focusing on prevention not just treatment. This attracts seniors and democrats.
Huckabee won election as a Republican in a Democratic Clinton state. He can attract democrats.
So Huckabee is the perfect storm. He charming and warm. He wins with the conservative right. He can win with his environmental policies. He can win on health care. He has an outline plan for immigration. He supports the Fair Tax.
The other candidates are scared of him.
Visit the Arizona for Huckabee blog at
http://azhuckabee2008.blogspot.com/
or http://www.MikeHuckabee.com for more info on Mike Huckabee.
Jack we were typing at the same time.
I would argue that Len Munsil’s campaign was primarily a result of collateral damage from angry Americans tired of overspending, scandals and the war in Iraq.
Mike Huckabee is the result of angry Christians disgusted with fiscal irresponsibility, the beginning of the credit crisis and living beyond one’s means, Democrats who’ve declared defeat on the American troops and politicians who don’t live up to their word.
Huckabee has galvanized this constituency and I would also assert that Ron Paul is doing the same.
On paper, Fred Thompson should be way ahead but his campaign is lifeless.
Mitt Romney comes off as a flopper and too stepford slick.
McCain angered the base long ago despite having a 90%+ conservative voting record but Americans want to see more energy and not refried Bob Dole in 2008.
Giuliani is a personal train wreck although his demeanor is well liked. But he’s too liberal for the base and the base is not ready to part from its tradition of electing a pro-life, pro-family conservative. GOP candidates can’t win without the cultural conservative wing of the party.
That leaves Huckabee who embodies the sentiment of angry evangelicals who are tired of lip service and cookie-cutter conversations. (2008 will be the year of angry Christians and angry Independents.)
Finally, the Dems are going to disintegrate before the General Election 2008. For some time, I’ve predicted that Hillary will NOT get the nomination. Her negatives are too high and the Dems know that! That leaves Barak Obama who will be presented as the light weight he is.
Democrats are in a bigger quandry than the Republicans – they just don’t realize it yet.
With all due respect to Senator Harper and the rest of the Huckabee supporters, I don’t see Gov. Huckabee holding out much longer. He is surging now because he was so unknown and under the radar. All there was to know so far is a very likable, witty, nice guy, strong willed (who loses weight like that…OK Verschoor, but who else?) and apparently principled.
However, the white hot light of the press is on him now, the media might like him for a day but will they still love him tomorrow? Gov. Huckabee is a fine man, I will not deny, but that in and of itself is not enough to garner the long lasting support he will need.
Giuliani is losing ground. The same thing that happened to him will happen again if there is not a substance to match the style. Huckabee has substance but is it the stuff conservatives want in the POTUS?
Immigration, he is softer than soft. He would be to the left of Janet if he were here. National Security, it might be good to know the latest on the intelligence front if you want to be the president. At some point the funny one-liners must be replaced with real answers. Comparing his experience to Reagan’s is not enough when his answer to a serious question on security is basically, “I don’t know but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.” Taxes, that is the thing that will really hurt him most. He is big government through and through.
I’ve passed on Rudy because of Life and the second amendment. McCain is a fine man, but not my cup of tea this time. Romney, I’m sure he is a great man but I need to know what he believes and what he doesn’t, I’m still not sure he knows and that goes way beyond RTL issues. Gov. Huckabee, well I’ve laid it out.
Time has a way of sifting and sorting. When it is done, Fred will be the man. Again, substance is the key. The intensity of this campaign moves things into warp speed. Look for Thompson to do well in Iowa and gain some much needed press on the issues while Rudy will slip more. Huck will grow old in the eyes of the new found true believers and they will be disenchanted that he had nothing more to offer. Romney will continue to fight for, but not receive, the trust of the people. McCain will be a steady middle of the road but never higher than 2nd in the polls. Thompson will be the last man standing because he has a wide and deep history of being a consistent conservative on all the issues.
And in the end, regardless of if I am right or not, we will all stand strong together. And, I agree the Dems really are falling apart.
Folks,
We WANT Hillary to be the Dem canidate, she pulls 50% negitives. Conservatives will turn out to vote against her, even though certain Republicans in washington can’t seem to act like republicans.
Actually Ann,
Thompson’s voting record could be best discribed as “McCain Lite”, but Conservative, I don’t think so.
“State Senator Jack Harper
Arizona Chairman, Huckabee For President
(Paid for by Huckabee for President, Inc.)”
LOL! What exactly did the campaign pay for Jack? The rest of us post here for free.
Anyone else creeped out by that Christmas ad he ran? I heard it on the radio and I thought it was pretty solid, then I saw the video and it just rubbed me the wrong way.
I have concerns of turning over the reigns of government to a churchman. I know that religious oaths and tests are un-American and I don’t want to come off as anticlerical. I feel that the President should honor our Judeo-Christian heritage, not just honor a sect of Judeo-Christianity or a cult that is often contrary to Judeo-Christian civilization.
Although I am a Democrat, it seems apparent to me that Huckabee is catching fire not because he is a conservative or because he is winning support from evnagelicals, but because he has come across as sincere and authentic in debates, speeches and ads. This stands in contrast to Romney, who makes Kerry look like someone who is steadfast and consistent. I agree with DSW that Giuliani and McCain are anathema to core GOP voters (for different reasons) and that Thompson is running as if his heart is not in it. Paul is a Libertarian, not a Republican, and his criticism of the Iraq war makes him untouchable to many in the GOP.
All of these factors make Huckabee’s rise easier to explain. He has a 20-point lead over Romney among women in Iowa and I would guess that women are playing a big role in his surge in New Hampshire, too. Women respond quickly and favorably to candidates who seem genuine and humane. Huckabee has all these qualities when he is at his best, but loses them when he makes coy and calculating comments like when he told the NY Times that he had heard that Mormons believe that Jesus and Satan were brothers.
Munsil ran a lousy campaign in 2006. While he had a noted silver tongue, his ground operation was laughable and he could not consolidate support from all wings of the GOP. Huckabee has shown that ability in Arkansas, which is a more Democratic state than others in the South. I think he is already showing signs of a general election strategy when I hear his comments on issues such as health care and immigration and can see how he would have appeal in many states that are not solidly Democratic, especially against Hillary, who I PRAY we do NOT nominate. He would come into the general election with fewer negatives than other GOP candidates and his main weakness right now is keeping up with Romney’s fundraising gravy train.
Actually, Ann, I am with you. As for Fred Thompson’s voting record, for those who have the capacity to delve into the excellent reasons Fred voted for something or against something that you didn’t think appropriate, you would find that he delved into the heart of it and found an excellent reason for his vote. Thompson is NOT a joking one liner..he does the work. His ACTUAL record is excellent.
I sincerely believe that what has been wrong with his candidacy is solely the media, which has done its best to torture the life out of it. He has enjoyed the least coverage to the point of being blackballed. And the little coverage he got was negative and lying (laziness) with pictures and descriptions of ‘old’ (angled unsmiling pictures accenting his age) yet he has still managed to stay afloat. BTW, Ron Paul doesn’t look that good. We shall see the results in Iowa shortly. All he has to do is hang on until the others slowly float away. Huckabee will be the first floater. And IF Huck won the primary, he would not get my vote for president. One(two?) George Bush is enough.
Ann,
You laid it out all right. Fred has a chance to show his winning side now that the screen writers are going back to work. Just like on TV Fred will win always in the end as long as he follows the winning script. I have heard that the oval office has a side door where Monica slid in and out, but does it have an ante room where Fred could keep some screen writers for his term, but what would happen if they go on strike in the middle of his term?
I can’t help the feeling we’ll all rue that day that we don’t nominate John McCain to the become the President.
As for Munsil; Len was an excellent candidate. He had a 3 pronged platform that identified the needs of Arizona and did so with a comprehensive approach. The problem is it got pushed out and was never brought to the full attention of the voters. He was muddled down in the 911 Memorial and never got back on track. The state party did not do the job they needed to do and when spending all your time reading the Drudge Report is the best a high level coordinator can get done, you are toast. Len was not a lifetime politician; he was a lifetime policy advocate. There is a huge difference. His past positions were not what the MSM wanted and they made sure no one else did either; had his message been adequately presented and correctly reported, it could have been very different. Huckabee has been a politician for years, campaigning is not new; Len Munsil is a genuine patriot who saw a need and offered to step up, unfortunately, that is not what we have been trained to expect and we judge a candidate not on the steak but the sizzle.
Horst,
Sen. McCain is not a candidate I dislike and if he is the nominee, I will be proud to stand behind him and offer all the support I can. When I look for the overall candidate, Sen. Thompson rises to the top. I suspect of the two, whichever one is out first or in it to the end, the other will garner their endorsement.
I have to say that as a liberal, I find the din over Huckabee extremely amusing. After years of jamming wedge issue after wedge issue into the public consciousness, Republicans are confused by someone running with these wedge issues as their core campaign strategy and has become successful with it (that or it’s all Chuck Norris’ doing).
I also find it amusing that if we truly are in the grips of a post-modern Holocaust (i.e. abortion), the person who is the most ardent anti-abortion candidate is being castigated over issues like taxes and immigration. I guess life *isn’t* such a beautiful choice if you’re just going to grow up pay an 18% income tax to fund the Department of Education.
And before any starts touting Fred’s “strong pro-life credentials”, remember that his Hollywood paycheck was more important than serving in the legislative body that could actually pass laws to prevent abortions.
Klute,
It was not the call of Hollywood, Senator Thompson chose not to run after the death of his daughter. She died from an accidental overdose of prescription medication. He enjoyed a strong positive public opinion in Tennessee and would have been re-elected easily. He actually was filming Law and Order while in the Senate.
Ann,
Regardless of why he left, where’s he been? This isn’t concern trolling – I truly do not get why Thompson’s even pulling 11% or whatever he’s down to. What’s his appeal? Strong fiscal conservative/pro-war? McCain. Strong pro-life/theo-con? Huckabee. Electable? Giuliani. Some combination of the above? Romney.
Thompson may also be a Romney in the combination aspect – so where’s he been? He’s campaigning at half-steam, he goes around blaming Fox of all things for not getting getting positive coverage, he comes off as smug and lazy (“Let me wear my expensive loafers and ride around the state fair in a golf cart – that’ll let me connect to the average person”)… And I know there’s this desperate attempt in some quarters to paint him as a Hollywood superstar, but being honest, he’s not exactly Ronald Reagan in the looks department.
The only candidate I really fear from the GOP slate is McCain, and since the he’s unacceptable to the right-wing because of the berzerker rage against the immigration reform, bullet dodged.
Klute
I think you have it, he is not some combination (Strong fiscal conservative/pro-war, Strong pro-life/theo-con, Electable) He’s all of these things wrapped up into one. Think of it as a Christmas present for the entire country!
In a post to the Sonoran Alliance Klute said:
“The only candidate I really fear from the GOP slate is McCain, and since the [sic] he’s unacceptable to the right-wing because of the berserker rage against the immigration reform, bullet dodged.”
I find it incredulously hilarious that Klute, a self described Liberal gives praise to the Right Wing of my party, the oh so proud base of Republican Conservatives, for keeping the only candidate that they, the Liberals feared at bay and helped them “Dodging the Bullet”
Wake up fellow conservatives, wake up all you McCain Bashers.
No real Huck supporters here, eh?
Re: Fred – this race, like the BCS, is full of ups and downs. I think Romney’s campaign has peaked and his support will deflate never to return. Rudy could make a comeback but if he does not poll strong by Super Tuesday (Feb 5), he could be done. Since the Hucksters have taken on Rush, looks like Huckabee will be in decline. He just comes off as swarmy when he goes negative. With Huckabee and Romney in decline, this benefits McCain and Thompson. This race is looking like a Texas hold ‘em tournament and sometimes laying back in the cut is not a bad strategy.
I like McCain. But he has to do something about Rush. You cannot win National Support without the Dittoheads (like myself). Second, he has to do something with the anti-immigration crowd, because they are the base right now. McCain would have to concede the point that he was wrong and take up Randy Graf’s position which is reform immigration after the border is secure.
We as a party also have to define what a secure border is – a double fence, backed up by a working virtual fence (UAVs), and a Border Patrol force of 30,000 federal agents (current level is 18,000 – I think). These agents have to have wide latitude in apprehensions and apprehensions have to go up and then way down.
First, let me make it abundantly clear, the Huckster is no conservative!
His total lack of understanding of foreign policy can be seen by his desire to cuddle up to the mad mullahs of Iran.
In economics, the Huckster is a fascist, as he is for higher taxes, more government spending, and more regulation of the economy.
While he is now (temporarily) pretending an opposition to illegal aliens, he has a long record of supporting illegal aliens with our tax collars.
Conservatives believe that when something should be done by the government, it should be done at the level closest to the people that is capable of accomplishing the tax. The Huckster has a history of overriding local decisions.
Finally, while I don’t support Gov. Romney, the Huckster’s vicious attacks on Romney’s faith is despicable, and not the actions of a real conservative.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/huckabee_angers_catholics/2007/12/23/59397.html
Huck visits anti-Catholic evangelical preacher John Hagee in San Antonio
. . . Romeo is dying
James,
I don’t think Romney’s peaked, I’m thinking he may pull off a victory in Iowa, which if he does, he gets the nomination.
About McCain though… I don’t think Randy Graf’s position is one he should take, considering it didn’t work for Randy Graf in Arizona. And if you can’t whip the voters of a border state into an angry froth over immigration, it ain’t going to work in Michigan or Ohio.
And he could toss the Didiots a bone, the way he backed off his rightful condemnation of the Confederate flag and kissed up to Falwell and Robertson. But that’s politics… he’ll no more listen to that faction if elected than he would the other two.
Munsil allowed Nathan the Snake to pollute his campaign right at the end of the Primary which became evident early in the general election and that compounded the problems already inherent due to his intemperate comments as well as the his anti-Mormon links he had placed on the CAP website when he was in charge of that organizasion. Losing the left, the center, the Mormon, the MCDC, the party grass roots leaders led to the 400,000 plus pounding.
I do not believe that Huckabee can win the general due to his actions on taxes, his statements about illegal aliens prior to his candidacy, and his previous Mormon “cult” statements, but he still has a chance since his campaign has not slipped into unethical and illegal practices that to turn off those with integrity.
Klute,
Hmmm, Romney making a comeback. Can Romeny come back? What would it take? That will be hard considering the Boston Globe endorsed McCain and another NH conservative paper, the Monitor I believe has endorsed anyone but Romney.
Print media endorsements do matter to their audience they carry legitimacy.
I think the achievement of Huckabee was deflating Guilani’s inevitability and exposing Romney’s weakness. Even if Romney weren’t a Mormon, he would still have problems. For instance, if Orrin Hatch ran for President, I would not have a problem with it, as Hatch strikes me as humble and urbane. Romney comes off as duplicitious and arrogant.
The post-Christmas reports indicates that Huckabee is losing support. IF both men implode during Iowa, it benefits McCain, Thompson and possibly Guilani. And Thompson is not out. I am not a Fred Head and I concede that Fred has to run with more energy.
The reason why I mention Graf’s position versus Tancredo is because I never thought Randy was a racist or filled with the venom that Tancredo. Where during 2006, I thought Tancredo was. I don’t believe now that Tancredo is a racist, especially with a press secretary named Carlos Espinosa. Where as during 2006, I never thought Graf was a racist just very close to Tancredo. I think Graf is also married to a Latina.
Graf’s position is close the border first and then handle immigration reform – something both democrats and republicans agree on. Michigan or Ohio may not have the same view of the border that we do, but immigration is a big deal for Iowa republicans.
I am not a Nativist. Historically, nativist campaigns always hurt the party that harbors them in the long run. And talk to rank and file Republicans in Arizona and closing the border is the number one issue. Controlling the border looks like a double fence, virtual fence technology and 30,000 border patrol agents. I think the GOP can be successful if they can repudiate the race baiting identity politics of open border anarchists and coldly argue a closed border on national security terms.
What if it turned out to be Huckabee versus Obama? His bigotry likely goes beyond his hangups about two of the largest religious sects in the country and would kill his chances. Is the country really ready for a bigot for president?
Munsil had one of the better ground operations, which is constistant with having an evangelical as a candidate. For the most part, every Victory office was stacked up with Munsil’s volunteers, who helped make all sorts of general turn out the vote calls. Munsil’s loss was not because he was evangelical, nor the CAP president, nor his campaign team, but rather the strength of the incumbant, lack of funds and Name ID associated with Clean Elections.
Julie,
You can believe that if you want, but no other statewide candidate was shellacked like Munsil even against Democrat incumbents. One of the problems with his ground operation was that it did not work with the traditional ground operations. People working hard but without experience in the specific venue or knowledge of the terrain results in a lot of wasted energy and counter-productive effort.
In addition, his actions in the Primary created a lot of disenchanted potential allies compounded by the WISH/Mormon/workforce enforcement workers.
Again, it is instructional to remember that the size of his loss was historic for any Republican statewide office candidate. If it was only what you claim, Montgomery would have lost by as many votes or more since he did not have the advantages you give to Munsil and he was running against a strong incumbent Dem.
James,
“Hmmm, Romney making a comeback. Can Romeny come back? What would it take?”
I don’t necessarily think he went away – what’s the old saying: “Dated Y, but married X”? It’ll be a dogfight in Iowa, NH, South Carolina, and Florida – but I think Romney will win each state, with each state giving someone else a “I came in 2nd!” moment (which will make for good TV, but it won’t be as hilarious as Lieberman’s “three-way-tie-for-third!” comment from ’04″).
“Print media endorsements do matter to their audience they carry legitimacy.”
Romney’s smartin’ for certain, but as 2000 proved (and I think will prove again for McCain), the better candidate is often trumped by the better funding.
“Romney comes off as duplicitious and arrogant.”
I just think he comes off as robotic. I’ve taken to referring to him as the RomneyBot 3000. I hope it sticks.
“I am not a Fred Head…”
I love the Fred Heads. They remind me of Jerry Brown supporters in ’92.
“I never thought Randy was a racist or filled with the venom that Tancredo…”
I hope you don’t think I was implying that you or Randy are racist, I just think that if Graf’s had a +2 wand of electablity with the immigration issue, we wouldn’t be seeing Gabby as congresswoman.
As for Tancredo not being a racist because he had someone with a Latino surname, I leave that for history to judge. The Confederacy had Jews working for it, and they weren’t planting trees in Israel.
“I think the GOP can be successful if they can repudiate the race baiting identity politics of open border anarchists and coldly argue a closed border on national security terms.”
Funny. I just mentioned something in this vein today over at Espresso Pundit. Although, if the GOPs slavish loyalty to the “Southern Strategy” is any indication, I doubt that’ll happen.
How about RoboRomney 3000?
One more week and we will find out who has the right stuff.