Tancredo to drop out of the race. Neither BRC or KAET polls were reporting numbers for Tancredo so it is hard to say if there will be any impact on the race in Arizona.

It has long been held that the GOP coalition is made up of three constituencies: Social Conservatives, Fiscal Conservatives and International Conservatives. The latest NBC/WSJ poll appears to play this out. 

Giuliani and Romney are locked in a dead heat at 20% each. Huckabee is within the margin of interest at 17% while John McCain is trailing at 14%.

Mayor Giuliani and Governor’s Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee represent these constituencies: Giuliani = International (National Security) Conservatives; Mitt Romney = Fiscal Conservatives; Huckabee = Social Conservatives with John McCain taking up the loose ends on a handful of each constituency.

The big question is which candidate will manage to pull each constituency together?

     It looks like there will be a contested race for the Republican primary for the LD-26 House. The three announced candidates are Trent Humphries, Vic Williams, and Marilyn Zerull.

     Trent owns a local computer business and has a young family. His campaign seems to be the most organized. His campaign manager is the well-connected and experienced Kevin Herring. Media contact for the campaign is Mike Cole (248-1258) who works for a local radio station. The campaign also has a long time Republican activist as the volunteer coordinator and another person as the marketing expert. Look for Trent to run a very competitive campaign that will appeal to Independents as well as the traditional Republicans. We do not yet have a web site for Trent but have been informed that one will be coming.

     The next candidate is Vic Williams. Vic has been very active with the party and currently serves as the treasurer for the county committee as well as first vice-chair for LD-26. It was speculated that Vic would relinquish his position(s) within the party to focus on his race but it now looks like he will retain his party titles. Early indications are that Vic will run a more centrist campaign than the other two candidates. Again, no web site that we know of at this time.

     Marilyn Zerull is the final candidate on the Republican side. Marilyn has been active within the party as a precinct committeewoman and as a state delegate. She lives in the northern part of the district where Republicans have a distinct advantage in registration. Marilyn is running as a Reagan Republican and has also assembled a solid campaign staff for her race. Marilyn has an early version of her web site at http://www.marilynzerull.com/.

     The LD-26 senate primary is shaping up to be a classic showdown between the conservative and liberal wings of the party with Al Melvin vs. Pete Hershberger. It looks like Hershberger will be going with traditional fundraising. Because of clean elections the more money he raises the better-funded Melvin’s campaign will be. We do not see how Pete closes the gap by which Al won in the last primary against a less liberal opponent than Pete.

     The Democrats appear to be running two candidates for the house race. Don Jorgensen has already filed and we expect Lena Saradnik to run again. Despite her lack-luster first term in office look for Charlene Pesquiera to run again for the senate.