Both parties are losing voters.


There has been a lot written lately about voter registration numbers. Without a doubt there has been a trend toward voters registering Independent or No Party (Other.) Some have made a big deal about current registration ratios between the parties.

If you look at the registration numbers going back to 2000 you do not find much difference between the parties. In November of 2000 the Secretary of State reports voter registration numbers of 43.35% Republican and 38.24% Democratic (14.50% other.) For the general election in 2002 the numbers are 41.52% Republican and 35.87% Democratic (21.97% other.)

The numbers for the past few years look like this:

Year       Rep       Dem      Other
2000       43.35     38.24     14.50
2002       41.52     35.87     21.97
2004       39.92     34.59     24.80
2006       39.51     33.26     26.55
Oct ’07   38.24     32.96     28.11

Excuse me for missing the party trend. Since 2000 Republicans lost 5.11% and Democratic numbers are down by 5.28%. Based on this view neither party has much of an edge.


Comments

  1. Good call. What the voting trend of PND voters is tells the real story.

  2. Iris Lynch says:

    Additionally, one might think that the Dems would be higher than they are since Az. has had a great influx of discontented California voters. It is rumored that Calif. is a Dem. state. AND according, to Ann Coulter, if they were smart they would be Republicans. Perhaps they are NOT smart and continue to register as Democrats, hoping for a different outcome than the one they created in the state they now eschew.

  3. As I’ve said before, the rise of independents is not a good thing for Republicans, as they have been voting 2-1 against us. J.D. Hayworth lost four of every five against Harry Mitchell.

    Let’s stop pretending these numbers don’t suck for us, raise money, find some candidates, and work hard to support them.

  4. Duke the Dog says:

    What is not mentioned in the deceptive stories about this issue from the media is that the voter registration lists in each county were recently purged of inactive, deceased or felony conviction voters.

    The lists were also reconciled with driver’s license and property tax notices to confirm current addresses of voters.

    So, what that did was eliminate a disproportionately larger number of Democrats and No Party Affiliation voters. Of course the Dems see this as “disenfranchisement” but in reality it’s just cleaning up the rolls.

    Green Valley, for example, has a 20% population turnover annually, and Saddle Brooke had almost a 30% population turnover (both have very senior populations).

    You can’t allow deceased individuals, or convicted felons to remain on voter registration lists because it encourages fraud (just ask the Daley family in Chicago, they’re really good at getting the cemetery vote).

    So them Dems started out in the hole, as they do every time the rolls are purged.

    So, did the Dems get more registered voters than Republicans? Yes
    Did the Dems increase their margin significantly in the state? No

    Great analysis gnat.

  5. Bottom line seems to be we need to unify our party instead of tearing each other apart. We need to start a healing process that people can see is moving us forward so they will want to register Republican.

  6. We fool ourselves to think numbers is enough. Without a message and a messenger with credibility…it is like the increase in your property value for taxes, all on paper and not in the bank.

  7. I agree with Lynn and Ann but I do think that fair weather Republicans will reregister as Independents/PND’s (because they are mad at their party) rather than reregister as a Democrat because they are smart enough to know what party they don’t identify with. Although they’re still mad at their “family,” they still show up at the holiday gatherings.

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