A Visual Look At The Numbers


Spurred by the article in the The Arizona Republic this morning, I wanted to put together a visual presentation of where the voter registration numbers really are. Here are two graphs.

The first graph represents the number of active voters in each party. Republicans still hold an edge in October, 2007 but growth has been stagnant.

Voter Registration 2007

The second graph represents the rate of change in voter registration. This is especially interesting as one can see the highest rate of change (increase) within individuals not wanting to register as either Democrat or Republican but rather, as an Independent. My assessment is that these are voters angry with the Republican party but not quite willing to join the ranks of the Democratic party.

Registration Rate Changes 

I have long held that political demographics are changing to a more conservative population as conservatives continue to have more children and Roosevelt Democrats continue to age and die off.

My prescription is that if the GOP can get its act together promoting what is articulated in its platform – low taxes, controlled spending and protecting traditional values – it will regain its strength with the American people.

Here is the Excel Spreadsheet (Voter Registration) I used to put this together.


Comments

  1. It is striking what happened when our GOP Senators pushed for amnesty. Wow… I don’t expect anything from McCain, but we need Kyl to do something to make up for that with the base.

  2. kralmajales says:

    I will say this honestly…if you think that most of this trend is do to “amnesty” or the GOP stance on immigration, you are right. But in the opposite way that you think.

    New registrations of Hispanic-Americans are going Democrat…in a bigger way…and independent. I would also bet that many may have been people leaving the GOP or shying away from it in the traditional, moderate, some call “liberal” business wing of the GOP party. Many of them are mad about “amnesty”…that it didn’t pass…or angry about the rhetoric in the GOP that hurts business.

    Either way, the analysis of this post is sound overall. I am not sure that I believe that there is a generational shift happening toward conservatism. There was…no question…for the past 20 years, but that shift is flying away because the party is looking more and more extreme, Iraq, scandal, etc etc. etc.

  3. kralmajales says:

    Relevant to today’s discussion. Coleman seems to think the same as I do about the registration losses. This article says that Dems are BOTH leading in new registrations 4-1 and that the GOP has actually lost registrations. In addition, the Dems are outraising the GOP statewide as well.

    http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/208738.php

  4. Iris Lynch says:

    As a staunch Republican, I will agree it is true that Republicans are going Independent, but not because they have become more liberal. Quite the opposite, they are disgusted that the Republican party has become so liberal. These candidates get elected when they claim they will be conservative, then they get into office and follow the fools who are still there (because they are not up for re election). Specifically WHY the Senate is more liberal than the House, with the staggered elections of Senators. There are always 2/3 there to indoctrinate the newcomers.

    HAD the Elected Republicans adhered to the party principles, they would not have been ousted and they would be receiving plenty of donations. The home Republicans simply don’t believe these guys any more.

    There was a time, not too long ago, when the simple statement of being conservative was as bad as passing gas in public. People now are more open about their conservative bent and would prefer Thompson to Guilani, but for the brainwashing of the media that Guilani can beat Hillary.

    Another indication that Independents are distraught conservatives is the Lou Dobbs program on liberal CNN. It has grown to be the 2nd highest watched program on CNN. Only King is bigger..and that is watched for the entertainment value of big names. Lou also PUSHES conservatism in his values and encourages unhappy conservatives to go Independent.

    As for the myth regarding the so called Hispanic vote, it is in reality such a tiny percentage of actual votes that it is totally irrelevant. Even so, as soon as the Hispanics become educated and successful, (not the illegals) they are just as bright as anyone who would like to hang on to their gains. (conserve)

    Of course, there are many more ‘reasons’ for conservatism and there are also many ‘emotions’ in favor of liberalism and on that note, I will say that chasm can never be mended.

  5. I wish I could agree on the rise of independents. They’ve been breaking 2-1 against Republican candidates; J.D. Hayworth lost 4 of every 5 independent votes in his most recent race.

  6. kralmajales says:

    Yep, Publius. You are right about that. The polls I have seen are still that way too. If that doesn’t change (and I think it is both immigration and Iraq…more the latter), then 2008 will be a big big defeat.

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