While there has been a great deal of media attention paid to registration gains made by the Democrat Party in Arizona over the last few months, analysis of the changes in voter registration for the first six months of 2007 paints a different picture. The Republican edge over the Democrats actually grew from 147,038 to 151,985, an increase of nearly 5,000 voters. Moreover, GOP registration increased in eight Arizona counties while it decreased in seven. By comparison, DEM registration increased in only four counties while it decreased in eleven. These numbers reflect new registrations as well as voters who are taken off the rolls for being inactive, moving, or dying.
Of course, the real growth belonged to Independent voters, which registered increases in every county except Navajo. In fact, the GOP gains are not so much the result of gaining voters faster than the DEMs so much as it is losing them at a slower rate. For the first six months of the year the GOP lost 2.0% of its voters statewide while the DEMs lost 2.9%. Independents grew by 9.8%.
The data also shows that many of the GOP defections occurred when the Senate began consideration of the “comprehensive immigration reform bill” that was labeled as amnesty. It is clear that many of those folks who said that they were leaving the GOP as a result of that bill did exactly that, switching their registration to Independent.
One final factor in these decreases for both the GOP and the DEMs has been the mass exodus of active voters in Navajo and Apache county since the 2004 elections. Each party lost 25-30% of its registered voters in Apache county while Navajo county lost nearly 40% of all voters, including more than 50% of its independents. These two counties represented one-third of the GOP’s total losses and nearly two-thirds of the DEM’s total losses.
Go back 10 years, and you’ll find that both R and D voter registration figures are virtually unchanged.
As you noted, independents/no declared party has nearly tripled during that period.
IMHO, that’s the key to understaind AZ politics. Both parties have become captives of their idealogues, while a growing bloc of voters is disillusioned by both parties, and are up for grabs.
In 2006 they went for the Democrats. What they’ll do in 2008 will be determined by all the factors that make up an election.
It might suprise you guys to hear that I am an NDP, not a Democrat.
Im an independent myself. A big question for us to consider is if the new Republicans are the type of voters who have come here and registered from places like Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. They are not the same kind of GOPers that populate the party here these days. As of the late, the trend are going Democrat too, which is a big big deal if you consider the fact that new registrants might very well be these same retirees moving here from other places.
Finally, as Sonoransam notes, independents are leaning heavily toward Democrats…both here and nationally. That, of course, can change, but I will be dollars to donuts that if the GOP party her continues to be mean spirited on immigration and the war continues, those independents will turn out en masse for change.
We have a long way to go though. Will be interesting.
The post states:
“The data also shows that many of the GOP defections occurred when the Senate began consideration of the “comprehensive immigration reform bill” that was labeled as amnesty. It is clear that many of those folks who said that they were leaving the GOP as a result of that bill did exactly that, switching their registration to Independent.”
I know that this can be interpreted two ways…
One way is that GOP voters are angry and left because the party had been supporting the Comprehensive Plan and hasn’t done enough…
Another is that they left because the party as become far too right wing and unaccommodating on this issue.
The latter is something very very serious, if it is true.
My guess however is that the timing is actually spurious and doesn’t matter one way or the other.
Kral, as someone who obviously follows this stuff, which way are you going to register for the Presidential primary? And how many of these new liberated voters are going to switch back to vote in the primary?
Hmmm that is a helluva good point. My guess is that very few will re-register to vote in the Presidential primary at all and fewer will switch back. Too much effort. It won’t be enough to matter on either side. I will be staying independent and won’t be able to vote in either primary because it is closed.
Many many independents will be in the same boat. So…what you get at is really very interesting. In Arizona, the most extreme members of each party will be choosing the delegates here. It will mean the most conservative of Republicans…with no independent crossovers…and the most liberal of Democrats…with no independent crossovers.
Walter, what do you think will be the effect? Great question.
Wow…you have me thinking some more Walter. I do wonder how many independents will be swayed to leave their Independent status when they find out they cannot vote in the Presidential primary. Many, like me and Sonoran, are very active voters…and are quite interested in day to day politics. It will be interesting to see how many are in love with a particular candidate and switch parties so they can vote. I bet they will be highly unlikely to switch back though.
Kral, et al:
I’m well aware that I sacrifice the right to select a party nominee – but the fun of voting in any regular party primary makes up for that.
Can you link up the information to the data & also support the claims that people switched from Rep to Indy on a specific date?
Does the data source actually give you the specific dates that the registration numbers came up or are you simply speculating.
I’m not trying to pick a fight, I just would like to see where you’re coming up with your info. A few months ago, the new Republican registration numbers had 11% for Reps, 36% for Dems & the rest Indy’s (estimated) statewide. What you are stating doesn’t jive with J. Brewer’s info.
I remember those numbers too, but they were for the last quarter. My guess is that they eliminated most, but not all, of the GOP gains from earlier in the year.
Walter and Kral,
Why stop there ? How about operatives switching parties just to influence the primaries and help select the opponent of choice before switching back. In the general it really doesn’t matter what it says on your voter ID card. It is the vote that counts.
Along the same lines….
In the adverse selection process of which you speak, (party candidates on both sides drifting to extremes) could be quite nicely offset by a coordinated effort of independents. This coordinated effort would in fact, bring things back to the center. So in the end, balance would be restored.
Nightcrawler: In fact, I’d suggest that’s exactly what is happening. The party that manages to appeal to this center vote will win general elections. That’s why Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell won. That’s the real threat that Tim Bee poses to Giffords in the next election.
Hey, if the GOP is actually doing better than the Dems, then what is Kyl complaining about? He claims the state party isn’t doing its job or something? Beating the Democrats is the job, and it looks like they’re doing that! Keep it up GOP, we need more of it!