Sat 18 Aug 2007
Trends are an interesting thing. Sometimes they can help you see the patterns of the past and guess what the future might be. They also have inflection points. An interesting one just occurred at Real Clear Politics. For the longest time Romney was below 10% in the nationwide polls. McCain has been steadily coming down from the 25% of days gone by. In the last few days their lines have crossed. Romney is now closing in on a slowly declining Thompson.
August 19th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
RCP is excellent in compiling other polls into a composite. Unfortunately, they do not look at or indicate the polling method. Two of the polls are Republican and Independent voters, one is of adults, one is overloaded with 20% of universe comprised of blacks, etc.
The only one that I have been able to identify as being of only registered Republicans who are likely Primary voters is the Rasmussen Poll. That one shows Giliani and Thompson neck and neck in total numbers and well ahead in the favorable/unfavorable stats. In addition, Thompson has the highest percentage of conservative support and lowest liberal support of any of the candidates, which could be the crucial stat.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_republican_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election
I mean, if anyone believes that Thompson is at 11% (Quinnipiac) or that McCain is ahead of Thompson (Cook), or that Giuliani has a third of the likely Republican Primary voters locked up (Gallup), someone should check the source of the smoke in the room.