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     The Northwest Tucson/Oro Valley/Eastern Marana area (Legislative District 26) will be ground zero for the competition between the Democrats and Republicans for control of the state legislature. The voter registration in the district is currently 41% Republican, 31% Democrats, and 28% other.

     The Democrats surprised themselves last year by taking not one but two seats that normally go Republican. Lena Saradnik ran an excellent campaign and took a seat in the house previously filled by Steve Huffman. Even the novice Charlene Pesquiera won the senate seat held by Toni Hellon, who did not survive a primary challenge from Al Melvin.

     Hershberger is term limited out of the house in 2008. This gives the Republicans two openings there. Marilyn Zerull has already announced and filed her campaign committee with the state on June 4th. Trent Humphries has also announced and filed his exploratory committee on July 6th. There is also talk of Vic Williams entering the race. If that is the field look for a congenial primary focused on issues that affect people’s everyday lives and less pandering to the religious right. There is some chatter about other persons entering but with a full field of qualified candidates there does not seem much reason at this point.

     On the Democrat side we expect Lena Saradnik to run again. In what may prove a fateful move the Democrats are looking to run two candidates for the house. This is a risky strategy given the more mainstream Republican candidates and the loss of focus that comes from just one Democrat running for the house. According the Tedski at RRR the other candidate will be Don Jorgensen. (We are not sure if we should call him Dr. Jorgensen since his Ph.D. came from the now decertified Columbia Pacific University.)

     In the Republican senate primary we may have a face off between conservative Al Melvin and liberal Pete Hershberger. Despite rumors that Pete will switch parties, as appealing as that sounds, we are not holding our breath. That being said we do wonder why Hershberger does not just pull a Toni Hellon and move on to a much higher paying position within the bureaucracy.

     While Melvin easily beat Hellon is his first primary look for Hershberger to run a more competitive campaign. We do not subscribe to the theory that Pete has the nomination in the bag because his voting record is noticeably more liberal than even Hellon’s was and it will not play well in a one-on-one Republican primary. Further the Hershberger name is more myth than reality, with none of them having ever served in the senate.

     We keep hearing conflicting stories about Democrat plans for the senate seat. Unlike Saradnik, Pesquiera does not seem to relish serving in elected office. Stories go back and forth as to whether she will run. The Democrats would be wise to find another candidate whose heart is more in the race. Theoretically if they could recruit Hershberger for the seat Pete would be much more competitive against Melvin in the general election than in a Republican primary. But then reason does not always win out in politics.