Comments on: The Road Ahead in CD1

By: George of the Desert

George of the Desert — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 18:44:18 +0000

Great analysis.

Bennett would have the edge, I think, though Konopnicki would be tough as well. Both have the money and LDS connections. Interesting that one is strong in the west portion of CD1, and ther other has a base in the east region. It would appear that if Mr. Renzi stays in, he will have a primary. The 2008 CD1 race either will be an open seat race, or feel like one.

As for the comment that AZ is no longer a GOP bastion; a little history.

Until about 10-15 years ago, Democrats had more registered voters in Arizona than Republicans. Before 1956, Arizona was virtually a one-party state – Democratic. Until 1966, the legislature was run by the Democrats.

Republicans have been ascendant for years, but politics is a fickle business and sometimes elected officials and other politicans “step in it” and let the other side win a few races. That happened for the GOP in 2006 and there may be some residual effects in 2008. Time will tell.

But the notion that Arizona is slipping away as a strong GOP state is misguided. In fact, Pinal County has for the first time ever, reported a larger number of GOPers vs. Dems. Pinal County, for those not in the know, is the cradle of old-time Arizona Democratic politics. The flip to Republican advantage shows there is strength in the Ol’ Elephant yet.

The biggest worry for either the Dems or GOP is the rather stunning increase of registered independents. There’s a message in that.

By: Diogidog

Diogidog — Sun, 29 Apr 2007 01:23:22 +0000

Hold your fire! Keep your powder dry! Renzi is in it for keeps. All the junk speculation and prognostication is just a big fat waste of time. However, it has been an interesting exercise in raising name recognition for a 2008 Republican Primary in what was suppose to be a cake walk re-election for Renzi’s 4th Term in office. But watch those Dems! They are tripping over each other to get to the head of the line of the CD1 Congressional succession. And they ALL have money and organizational strength behind them. I hate to be the one to break it to ya’ll but Arizona is no longer a Republican bastion. In fact, just the opposite when you look at recent statistics. Nothing can be taken for granted anymore. We are having trouble keeping our own in line!

By: AZGOPgal

AZGOPgal — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 13:07:53 +0000

Best analysis I have seen – kudos. I must note that Renzi is stubborn. He has his eye on the prize (the gubernatorial seat) and will not let anything get in the way. My prediction: he doesn’t resign or he drags this out as long as he can – regardless of how it affects the party. What I want to know is what McCain has to say? I can’t imagine that he isn’t strong arming the congressman to resign. Maybe it’ll be an issue of concern to McCain if he ever returns to AZ from the east coast… I think he’s officially relocated – no?

Needless to say, we’ll all be watching and waiting.

By: Chris DeRose

Chris DeRose — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 02:05:08 +0000

Hack

Great analysis. If the conventional wisdom is correct, and there is a special election, the nomination may well belong to the person who can write the biggest check. I believe the primary must occur within 70 days of a vacancy, so while some candidates are raising money (while trying to raise their profile) $2300 at a time, someone who can spend a million of their own money has to be the favorite.

I’ve heard that O’Halleran can self finance, in addition to Pierce and Konopnicki. Resign to run laws would force either lawmaker to resign if the run in the special election.

By: Bob

Bob — Fri, 27 Apr 2007 22:57:00 +0000

The seat isn’t vacant–he’s not resigning.
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/hourlyupdate/180417