Maricopa County, Arizona GOP Straw Poll Results

On Saturday, January 13th at the Maricopa County Republican meeting, a straw poll was conducted on the 2008 Presidential candidates and the reasons why the Republican faithful thought we lost the election last November. Here are those results:

458 Ballots cast

First Choice for Presidential Candidate:
1 Hunter 96
2 Romney 82
3 Gingrich 53
4 McCain 50
5 Rice 27
6 Tancredo 24
7 Giuliani 22
8 Brownback 14
9 Huckabee 10
10 Hagel 2
11 Barbour 1
12 Pataki 0
Unacceptable Presidential Candidates:
1 McCain 282
2 Hagel 272
3 Pataki 260
4 Giuliani 213
5 Barbour 113
6 Brownback 108
6 Huckabee 108
7 Rice 91
8 Tancredo 85
9 Gingrich 81
10 Hunter 71
11 Romney 65
Acceptable Presidential Candidates:
1 Rice 269
2 Gingrich 265
3 Romney 239
4 Tancredo 219
5 Barbour 182
6 Brownback 178
7 Huckabee 167
7 Hunter 167
8 Giuliani 157
9 McCain 89
10 Pataki 70
11 Hagel 28
Republicans lost last November because:
Primary Reason Iraq 136
Secondary Reason Spending 115
Tertiary Reason Too Lenient on Immigration 94

Capitol Update – January 13th, 2007

James for Chair Alright, so it technically doesn’t count as a Capitol Update because it took place away from the Capitol, but since my beat includes pretty much anything that relates to the State Capitol, that gives me a fair amount of latitude. The race for State Party Chairman has been discussed in the hallways of the House and Senate, especially after the Party’s performance in the 2006 elections. Nothing like a good old-fashioned thumping to get folks to pay attention. And endorsements from elected officials from those two bodies seem to be evenly split. So we thought we’d pay attention to the main players in that contest.

Today’s big event was the meeting of the Maricopa County Republican Party, the election of their officers, etc. A boring meeting with no contested races and only one interesting bylaw change (that allows the Party to punish PCs who publicly endorse Democrats – you hear that you miserable Republicans for Janet?) that at least started on time and ended on time. Randy Pullen was there, obviously enjoying being surrounded by all of the legislative district chairs that had endorsed him. His people were also distributing a nice glossy brochure which details his personal and professional accomplishments and his goals for the Party. Lisa James was also there, surrounded by well-wishers and supporters like Lisa Atkins, Nathan Sproul, Tom Liddy and others. Congressman Trent Franks was also there, wearing his Lisa James sticker as well. James’ campaign was offering two stickers, a small round one that was professionally done, and an enormous one that someone did on their inkjet computer. We’re thinking that she should stick with the smaller one since it conveys the sense that she’ll do things professionally. The big one? Not so much… These things were HUGE!

Where things got interesting was when we asked Randy about the Political Insider column that quoted Lisa James as saying that Randy had tried to buy her out of the race by offering her the position of Executive Director. While Randy confirmed that the two did sit together, Randy said the topic was about keeping the race clean and the Party united. He said that he was complimentary to Lisa about her involvement and asked her if she would consider staying involved if Randy won. Randy said that he mentioned several positions that Lisa would be useful in but that no job was ever offered, after all, you gotta win before you can offer a job right? It wouldn’t matter in any case since Lisa told him that she had no interest in a full-time job with the Party. So I guess we can scratch Lisa’s name off of the shrinking list of potential Executive Directors.

Of course, now that we’ve put that rumor to rest, several points become obvious… First, Randy needs to quit having unity meals with people who then misrepresent his actions to make him look sleazy. Obviously Lisa leaked the story to the Insiders folks to make it look like Randy was somehow endorsing her ability or record, while simultaneously trying to make him look bad. Now before the James folks go nuts with posts, we’re not making that up since we can be sure that Randy didn’t leak the story and they were the only two there, so it is kind of obvious who fed the reporters the story. Second, do you want a Chairman who so obviously leaks to friends in the media to smear a fellow Republican? Again, no posts needed questioning them being friends of hers… They never contacted Randy to find out his side like most reporters do when they’re writing a real news story. They just printed what they were given without bothering to check it out. Fourth, and most people who heard all of this and were talking about this seemed to miss the point, do you want a Chairman who isn’t looking for a full-time job? Do you really want a part-time chairman?

I suppose if you were recruited into a contest to win a job you didn’t want, you probably weren’t asked for a real commitment of time. But does the Arizona GOP really just need a seat-warmer in the Chairman’s chair? Or do we need someone who will make a real commitment of time in the off-year and on-year, not just for 8 or 9 weeks leading up to election day. From where we’re sitting at the Capitol it is clear that we need to BUILD a party, RECRUIT PCs and candidates, TRAIN our people, and perform countless activities that will take a determined and full-time effort.

At least now we now that one of the candidates isn’t interested in anything like that… And that’s the news from West Washington!

Dobson Says “No” To McCain

John McCainJames Dobson

In what may be a huge loss to the McCain for President campaign, evangelical Christian leader, James Dobson, announced he would not support a McCain candidacy. (Read article)

In a recent radio interview on the Jerry Johnson show, America’s most prominent evangelical culture warrior stated, “Speaking as a private individual, I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances.” This should worry the McCain camp given Dobson’s nationwide influence among Christian conservatives.

Much of Dobson’s personal rejection of McCain and even Giuliani stems from statements and votes on marriage, abortion and restrictions on grassroots organizations. James Dobson heads the highly visible and effective Focus on the Family based in Colorado Springs.

How does Dobson’s recent comments affect the prominent Center for Arizona Policy and recent President and Republican candidate for governor, Len Munsil? Considering McCain’s endorsement of both Munsil and the Protect Marriage Amendment, Christian conservatives may be trying to reconcile John McCain with the pro-family, pro-life agenda.

Perhaps an indication may come as early as January 27th when the Arizona State Republican Party elects a new party chairman.

Regardless, this still does not answer the question who will consolidate Christian conservative voters heading into 2008. Senator Sam Brownback and Congressman Duncan Hunter may look great on paper but do not hold the same fundraising advantage as a Governor Mitt Romney. Ultimately, Primaries are won through fundraising but grassroots are equally important and the final question of who can beat the Democrat nominee will affect Republicans as they choose their nominee.