Late this afternoon, Congressman JD Hayworth conceded the congressional district 5 race to Democrate Harry Mitchell. Since the election last Tuesday, counting the remaining early ballots allowed JD to close the gap but as of Monday, that trend reversed allowing Mitchell to widen the gap between both. Today, JD decided to “make the call” meaning it appears that the next Congressman from CD 5 will indeed be Harry Mitchell.

Now I can rail on about how terrible Harry Mitchell is – a extreme liberal, pro-abort, sign-stealing, big government, heterophobe but as I predict, Mitchell will be a one-term Congressman in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 52,314 voters (latest voter registration). It appears the 87,060 “Independents” gave the election to the Dems.

Two years from now when Republicans take the pleasure of saying “we told you so” to the voters who will be fed up with Mitchell’s leftist agenda, expect a crowded field of Republicans to take the field. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Michele Reagan will be licking her chops at the opportunity to skip the LD 8 Senate seat for the CD 5 House seat. This will be a battle as the RAPAW’s (Rich Anglo Pro-Abortion Women) seek to take the seat back. Conservatives real work will be to groom a candidate over the next two years to win the Primary and take back this traditionally conservative seat.

One of the candidates I followed closely through this last election cycle is a young lady I met through my work in the pro-life movement. At the age of 23, Colleen Clark has put herself in the arena as a sharp, articulate, attractive and yes, conservative Republican woman.

I first met Colleen this last spring at another campaign event. I was impressed. This young lady had decided to seek a seat on a non-compensated board that oversees the Maricopa Community College System. This last Tuesday, she beat a 2-term incumbent with nearly 50% of the vote (read story).

Colleen is someone I can qualify as a compassionate conservative, especially in respect to her role as outreach coordinator of the Crisis Pregnancy Centers of Phoenix. She understands what it takes to bring people together to work for a common good. As an evangelical Christian, we can also expect Colleen to represent our values in an arena that has shunned ridiculed and treated with hostility anything resembling a Judeo Christian worldview. She won’t cave.

I look forward to watching this young lady go places and I am very proud of her accomplishments.

Congratulations Colleen! We expect great things from you.

It’s official. Well sorta.

John McCain announced today that he is forming an exploratory committee to seek the Presidency of the United States (ABC News link).

We knew this was coming and I for one, am having a hard time with the possibility of a McCain Presidency. So let me throw out a few random thoughts:

John McCain is old and getting older. If he wins the Presidency, he will be the oldest U.S. President in history. Now there’s nothing wrong with oldness but I have a theory that the older people get, the wackier they become. Case in point, Barry Goldwater. Some would argue that the John McCain of today is not the same one we first elected. Some would argue that John McCain has already started down Wacky Street.

Then there’s McCain’s temperament issue. Images of Humphrey Bogart as Lieutenant Commander Philip Queeg losing it on the witness stand come to mind as I envision a McCain Presidency. “Where’s my strawberries!” I worry this could be the wrong man for the job in times like these.

But issues weigh even heavier on the political mind and spirit. John McCain let conservatives down when he put forth campaign finance. This single piece of legislation handicapped grassroots organizations across the country while boosting the power of the liberal mainstream media and unions. What was he thinking???

Strike two was his vote against a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman. We can thank McCain for supporting Arizona’s effort but there’s no excuse for backing out on a federal provision.

The final and most damaging strike against McCain was his vote against banning taxpayer funded destructive embryonic experimentation. His ethics have gone overboard on this issue with the pro-life community and anyone who would use our money to sacrifice human life for some unproven fountain of health is insolant and dangerous.

As John McCain makes a decision on pursuing the Presidency, let’s make sure he knows how we feel.

     As of 6:18 pm on Friday 11-10-06 Pima County is reporting 31,005 votes for Al Melvin and 32,323 votes for Charlene Pasquiera in the LD 26 Senate race. Pinal County is not posting any updated numbers. At this time Pasquiera is leading by 356 votes.

Friday 11-10-06, 9:15 pm

All you political junkies are invited to join the Sonoran Alliance League when you sign up for Fantasy Congress.

This will be a fun opportunity to see how Congress performs.

     Here are two good articles on why there are still so many ballots that have not yet been counted. I am glad they are taking their time to carefully county every vote. It is much better than the alternative.

Tucson Citizen

Arizona Republic

Friday 11-10-06, 11:00 am

Ballots are still being counted, especially in the case of JD Hayworth and Proposition 107. Here are the latest numbers:

CD 5 – JD Hayworth vs. Harry Mitchell – Hayworth now within 5932 votes.

Proposition 107 - Pro 107 now losing by 33,437 votes.

LD 9 – Rick Murphy vs. Sheri Van Horsen – Murphy widens lead by 130 votes.

LD 10 House – Doug Quelland vs. Jackie Thrasher – Quelland closes in to 282 votes.

LD 11 House – Don Hesselbrock vs. Mark Desimone – Hesselbrock still behind but now by 859.

LD 17 House – Laura Knaperek vs. David Schapira – Knaperek narrows gap to 1662 votes.

LD 18 House – Russell Pearce vs. Tammie Pursley – Pearce widens lead to 1413.

LD 21 House – Warde Nichols vs. Phil Hettmansperger – Nichols overcomes Hettmansperger by 198 votes!

LD 23 House – Frank Pratt vs. Barbara McGuire – Pratt is now down by 174 votes.

LD 25 House – Jennifer Burns vs. Pat Fleming – Burns increases lead to 466 votes.

LD 26 Senate – Al Melvin vs. Charlene Pesquiera – Melvin inches to 146 votes from Pesquiera

LD 26 House – David Jorgenson vs. Lena Saradnik – No change at 4294 votes.

And the counting continues…

     The Arizona Daily Star is reporting that there are still 258,000 ballots statewide that have not yet been counted. The Tucson Citizen is reporting that there are 53,000 uncounted ballots in Pima County. The final count may affect the race for LD 26 Senate as well as other elections around the state. 

Thursday 11-9-06, 1:05 pm

Thanks to the Truth Squad for noting that there are 341,000 uncounted ballots statewide. The Star article was not very clear but the Citizen mentions the figure at the end of their story.

Interesting numbers still coming in on several races. These were considered relatively safe Republican districts.

Legislative District 9: Republican Rick Murphy leads Democrat Sheri Van Horsen by only 43 votes.

Legislative District 10: Democrat Jackie Thrasher has beaten Republican Doug Quelland by 344 for the 2nd house seat.

Legislative District 11: Democrat Mark Desimone has beaten Republican Don Hesselbrock by 942 votes for the 2nd house seat.

Legislative District 17: Republican Laura Knaperek came in 3rd place in this important Tempe house race by 1743 votes.

Legislative District 18: Only 1307 separated Democrat Tammie Pursley from the 2nd place position given to Russell Pearce in this hugely Republican district.

Legislative District 21: Perhaps the biggest shocker - Democrat Phil Hettmansperger has taken out Republican Warde Nichols by only 8 votes in the solid Republican district!

Legislative District 23: Democrat Barbara McGuire edged out Republican Frank Pratt by 173 votes for this 2nd house seat.

Legislative District 25: Republican Jennifer Burns managed to win the 2nd house seat by 381 votes against Pat Fleming.

Legislative District 26: Conservative Republican David Jorgenson was beaten by Democrat Lena Saradnik by 4294 in a district that should have gone Republican. Meanwhile in the race for the Senate, Republican Al Melvin, appears to have lost to Charlene Pesquiera by 148 votes!

One major speculation on the East Valley: It appears that the LDS influence on  local politics may be waning as Californians and midwesterners move into a growing East Valley. All the new home sales over the last two years has apparently brought with them less conservative homeowners. Could be an important trend developing. Look at LD 23 to switch Republican in the next two years.

Some counting of the absentee ballot continues but it is obvious that this is shaping up to be a “Democrat year” with the GOP losing seats in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature.

(Key word here is Apparent) 

Janet Napolitano & Terry Goddard: Janet was the clear winner in this election cycle. Although she set a new record in vetoing reasonable legislation over the last four years, she managed to win re-election handily because her opponent failed to define her as the Governor who stood in the way of progress. Terry Goddard was invisible until July of this year when anything and everything law-enforcement-related became associated with his name. Whoever handled his public relations campaign as Attorney General deserves a raise. Look for Goddard to resubmerge until 2009 when he will again resurface to begin his bid for Governor. Look for Janet Napolitano to begin her bid for the US Senate when McCain starts his campaign for the Presidency. One interesting note here on vote spreads: The difference in votes between Napolitano and Munsil was 262,374 while the vote spread between Goddard and Montgomery was 176,272. This may be an indication of who ran more successful campaigns for each of these candidates. Montgomery was far more visible in his media buys than Munsil in the last days of the campaign.

Harry Mitchell & Gabrielle Giffords: Both candidates benefitted from an anti-Bush/anti-war climate. Mitchell capitalized on the ASU-Tempe-liberal climate while Giffords benefitted from the UA-Tucson-liberal climate. Both were beneficiaries of strong get-out-the-vote efforts by the Democratic party. This was an effective use of resources and the Arizona Democratic Part knew it. Look for Harry Mitchell to be a one-term congressman. Giffords will be more difficult to challenge unless the State GOP can get its act together. Also with the defeat of JD Hayworth, Michele Reagan’s stock goes up. Forget the LD8 Senate, Reagan will likely be recruited by WISH listers to run against Mitchell in 2008.

Jon Kyl & Rick Renzi: Both clear winners in races where the DNC attempted to front formidable challengers. Jon Kyl walks away from this race inpenetrable and even more deserving of the title “One of America’s Best Senators.” All the money in the State of Arizona could not beat Jon Kyl but most important, Jon Kyl really is “Our Senator.” The indirect winners in this Senate race were all the printers, mailhouses and media buyers who managed to separate millions of dollars from developer, Jim Pederson. Rick Renzi walks away the winner in this swing district because his opponent, Ellen Simon,  could not shake off the radioactivity of her ACLU ties.

The BGLT Movement: Bisexual, Gay, Lesbian & Transgendered activists won by defeating Proposition 107 last night (that is, if the margin holds with the absentee ballot count). As the only state in the country that has now defeated a traditional marriage ballot, a message has been sent nationwide that Arizona is now a BGLT-friendly state. Look for the BGLT community to challenge Arizona’s marriage law just like they did in New Jersey and Massachusetts. Given our State Supreme Court composition and the fact that Arizona is in the hyper-liberal 9th Circuit jurisdiction, it is only a matter of time before some judge strikes down Arizona’s marriage law and forces gay marriage on the rest of us.

Arizona Democratic Party: AZ Dems faired well last night by not only keeping two major statewide offices but by also electing a handful of Clean Elections candidates in traditionally Republican districts. LD 10 lost Republican Doug Quelland in the House while LD 26 failed to elect conservatives Al Melvin (Senate) and David Jorgenson (House) in Northwest Tucson. In LD 23, Dems also made gains by electing father and daughter Rios and newcomer McGuire. This district is quickly moving toward the Republican column but will probably not make that transformation until 2008.

Anti-Smokers: Proposition 201 and 203 won while the tobacco industry’s 206 lost. Voters were apparently smart enough to tell the difference between 201 and 206. We will now see this sin tax increase and the legislature’s hands to be further tied by 203′s mandate.

Organized Labor: With the passage of Proposition 202, workers will now receive periodic increases in pay over time. Beginning January, almost every employer will be required to pay $6.75/Hour to their employees.

Animal Rights Activists: With the passage on Proposition 204, out-of-state animal rights groups like PETA will now be able to shut down one family farm in Arizona. This win also opens the door for other PETA agenda items to find their way to Arizona.

Private Property Rights: The biggest win for conservatives came in the passage of Proposition 207 which will now prevent activist judges and revenue-hungry governments from taking away private property from the citizens of Arizona.

Conservative Talk Radio: There is no doubt that conservative talk show radio hosts will have plenty to talk about leading up to the 2008 elections. Given that leadership of the Democratic party is hyper-liberal, struggles will probably occur within that party over what agenda to pursue. Pelosi’s San Francisco values coupled with Howard Dean’s Michael Moore’s 9/11 conspiracy-theory mindset will run into challenges with the newly-elected conservative Dems. Look for conservative activists to take advantage of this wedge within the Democratic party and while pointing out their extremists agenda.

Republican National Committee: Not immediate winners following the political enema they just suffered but look for major fundraising to occur over the next two years to reclaim Republican seats that will be held by one-term Democrats. There are no excuses this time as Democrats have to answer the question of what they will do now that they govern. Back to the point that their leadership will be tempted to govern from the extreme left . Republicans will take advantage of this fatal flaw with leftist Democrats and remind the voters of this in two years after Dems fail to present a mainstream-conservative agenda. There will be tons of money to be raised and made on the GOP side of the ticket.

More on the Losers in my next post.

     OK, we were beat on Tuesday. Now that I have that out of the way let’s look at the overall picture. Depending on how you examine it the second midterm election is not kind to a two-term president. The average loss under those conditions is in the mid 30’s. So what happened yesterday is not unprecedented.

     Yes Napolitano cleaned Munsil’s clock. Chalk up another defeat for Nathan Sproul. But while Janet was celebrating take note that Jan Brewer and Gary Pierce were elected to statewide office. Add to that the clear margin of victory for Dean Martin who ran as a strong supporter of Prop 300. Pederson laid it all on the table and even discussed abortion and Jon Kyl still beat him by a comfortable margin.

     I am not sure Trent Frank or John Shadegg even broke a sweat. These are two of the most conservative congressmen in the U.S. House. They are also well mannered and polite. Future candidates please take careful note of that. In a closer race Renzi held on to his seat in a swing district. Reform minded Flake easily beat his Libertarian opponent.What we have left in Arizona is a Republican party with low-key but extremely conservative elected officials. The foundation is solid and the party will come back strong in future elections.

Results can be viewed on the Secretary of State’s web site.

Wednesday 11-8-06, 7:30 am

1. Len Munsil is losing by a huge margin. This is what happens when you run as a “clean elections” candidate against an incumbent and have no money left to mass market your message across the airwaves. If only the Governor Veto ad would have been run.

2. The Marriage Amendment is down but not quite out. It appears to be winning in every county except Maricopa (razor thin margin) and by a huge margin in Pima County. It costs tons of money to run an initiative like this and apparently, the money was never raised.

3. Pima County has gone to pot. I am so glad I moved out of Tucson six years ago. With the exception of the east and northwest side, it has become a political cesspool. This is the liberal armpit of the State of Arizona.

4. Democrats mobilized their voters and managed to manipulate independents to vote this election cycle.

5. Tempe is the other liberal armpit of Arizona. It’s safe to say that wherever there is a state university, liberals reside. Let’s get rid of tenure.

6. JD Hayworth appears to be replaced by one of the biggest liberals from the legislature. Did I mention this guy, Harry Mitchell, steals and destroys his opponent’s property? Mitchell will be a one term congressman to be replaced in 2008.