According to the latest poll from SurveyUSA, Representative J.D. Hayworth enjoys a comfortable lead over Harry Mitchell. The survey shows J.D. ahead by 12 percentage points, outside the 4.1% margin of error. The details of the poll do not bode well for the future of the Democratic Party in AZ CD 5. Hayworth enjoys his highest level of support among generation Y voters (the youngest segment in the survey.)

     For those of you keeping track, the trend is clearly in Hayworth’s favor. The last SurveryUSA poll from May ’06 only showed J.D. up by 5%.

     The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has this as one of their priority races, even making the First Wave. With the current numbers I sure hope they dump a bunch of money into this one so there is less available for the AZ CD 8 race.

Tuesday 9-19-06, 4:00 am

In addition to the simple registration edge that Republicans hold over Democrats (see numbers), here are the ten reasons why I believe Len Munsil will be the next Governor of Arizona.

1) No spoiler on the ballot – Dick Mahoney is gone and will not have a chance to take shots at the Republican and suck votes away from the GOP this year.

2) The Marriage Amendment is on the ballot. Len was strongly behind the effort to get this on the ballot. This will drive conservatives and others who support traditional marriage to vote on election day. These voters are likely to be Len’s people.

3) Unlike in 2002, Jim Pederson is not throwing millions of his own dollars into the Democratic Party apparatus to give Janet Napolitano a boost. He has his hands full with his own race.

4) Len is underestimated and this will cause Janet to take the race for granted.

5) Len is running a much stronger campaign than Matt Salmon did in 2002. He has a much broader network and support system than Salmon did which consisted primarily of the East Valley. Len’s support is statewide and his network in Pima County is extensive. If you look at the win in LD 26, you will see a demographic switch in that county unlike in 2002.

6) Len is a terrific debater and will hold his own or even dance circles around Janet. Len is an attorney with a background in journalism and public policy. This will catch Janet off guard and those who have not made up their mind by the time they watch the debates will move into Len’s camp.

7) The voters want someone they can relate to. Janet Napolitano’s crowd consists of Mercury and Arizona Opera fans, Democratic activists and union leaders. Len’s core base consists of families, the business community, and conservative people of faith. Len’s network is much wider and deeper.

Janet Napolitano has vetoed more legislation than any other Arizona Governor. Janet Napolitano has earned the title of “Governor No.” This falls into line with the impression that she has no vision for the state other than to be an obstructionists. The people want a governor of action and the only action that Janet Napolitano has been able to demonstrate is that of standing in the way. Six of our eight Congressmen are conservative. Our two U.S. Senators are for the most part conservative. Our State House and State Senate are conservative Republicans. The state is trending conservative especially as clean elections allows the grassroots to elect more conservatives. Arizonans want to elect someone who will move the state forward not stand in the way. Len Munsil can make this argument by presenting a vision of progress and production.

9) Len Munsil is right on the issues. The majority of Arizonans support the issues the Len Munsil believes in. This includes strengthening families, strengthening the economy and protecting the rights of Arizonans. Len Munsil and Bill Montgomery’s Border Security Plan will stand as a pillar of this certainty and fortitude to many voters. Janet Napolitano and Terry Goddard have no plan other than to declare a state of emergency and blame it on President Bush and the federal government.

10) Finally, Len will present a clear and convincing vision for the State of Arizona. Over the last 3.5 years. Janet has provided no vision. She has never communicated where she wants to see Arizona in five or ten years. She is essentially a “checklist politician” meaning she can only list a handful of things she wants to do. Governing is more than writing checklists. As a woman without a family, she reinforces an underlying impression that she cannot relate to families and she offers a barren vision of things to come. Voters long for a sense of community and want to feel that their fellow Arizonans are part of a team. Janet is unable to do that because her personal life is a dead end. When Ronald Reagan ran for President, he presented a vision of the future that Americans bought into. They saw themselves as part of a broader team. Len Munsil can successfully present a vision because he has a family and this ties him to a future that is bigger than him or any of us. The voters want a leader who will cast and share that vision for all Arizonans. I believe Len can do that and it is for these reasons that I believe he will be the next Governor.

      The Republican nominee for CD 8, Randy Graf, arrived at the Tucson airport a little after 4:00 pm on Saturday. He was greeted by a large contingent of enthusiastic supporters.

     His visit to D.C. went very well and the powers-that-be in the party would like to keep the seat in the Republican column.

     Randy met with and received support from Speaker Dennis Hastert (IL-14), Majority Whip Roy Blunt (MO-7), Chief Deputy Majority Whip Eric Cantor (VA-7), Deputy Majority Whip Tom Feeney (FL-24), Chairman of the RSC Mike Pence (IN-6), and Republican Policy Committee member Phil English (PA-3.) Not bad for a quick trip to the capital.

     Graf also met with and got the backing of NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (NY-26) and all of the Arizona Republican House delegation except one.

     Randy stepped off the place with checks in hand. I hope that Gabby was not counting on the Republicans abandoning CD 8 as part of her strategy.

     Here is an article by Daniel Scarpinato of the Arizona Daily Star covering the event.

Saturday 9-16-06

      The Conventional Wisdom is that Janet Napolitano will easily win re-election in November. Of course conventional wisdom is not always right. Just ask Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly about his prediction on the John C. Scott show that Toni Hellon would keep her State Senate seat.

     I could speculate about the Arizona Governor’s race in 2006 but let’s look at some measurable numbers instead. The last election for Governor was in 2002. We do not have registration numbers from the ’06 general election but we do have them for the primaries in ’02, ’04, and ’06. From each year we have a snapshot of the electorate at about the same time.

Here are the numbers.

2002 primary: 798,375 Dem;    930,125 Rep. Republican edge 131,750 

2004 primary: 856,075 Dem;    976,280 Rep. Republican edge 120,205

2006 primary: 847,490 Dem; 1,003,977 Rep. Republican edge 156,487 

     So what do the numbers tell us? The Republicans have 24,737 more registered voters in 2006 than in 2004. Why is that significant? Because Janet only won in 2004 by 11,819 votes.

     But the primary was nasty and the party is divided. Not quite. Don and Len were both struggling to differentiate themselves because they were so close on the issues. They both ran on conservative platforms and while they did split the vote they did not split the party.

     What split the party was the 2002 GOP primary when Matt Salmon, Betsey Bayless, and Carol Springer went at it. I do not personally remember the primary but I do know that Bayless was from the abortion wing of the GOP and Springer was also from what I have read. So that year 44% of the primary voters were going for an abortion candidate. Fast-forward to 2006 and 90% of primary voters went for a pro-life candidate.

     When you look at 2002 you see that Bayless did not win one single county. She came close in Pima but trailed Salmon statewide. In 2006 Goldwater won 7 counties but Munsil won the rest and won overall.

     I am going to speculate at this point although I think I am on pretty solid ground. Goldwater won in certain locations mostly on the border issue. I think Don also appealed more to rural voters. To address this Len should address the border issue and contrast his approach with Napolitano. Munsil is already doing that so it is a matter of message and delivery.

     I do not know how Len connects more with the rural voter but if he can improve in that area and articulate a strong border security message then he should pick up most if not all of Don’s voters. Goldwater is also being a team player and quickly and clearly backed Len. (Don, the party thanks you.)

     The one social moderate in the 2006 primary was Gary Tupper and he pulled in 3.7%. Come election day Len may need those voters but it is a much easier mark than the 44% of social moderates that did not vote for Salmon in 2002.

     Two of the counties in which Len lost, Pima and Cochise, have a Republican congressional candidate with a reputation for being strong on border security. Whether Len teams up with him for some border county campaigning remains to be seen. Same for CD 7 with Pima and Yuma counties.

     So, a less divided party, a registration edge greater then the opponents margin of victory last time, a strong issue on which to run, and good allies in the congressional races. Sounds like a win for Janet to me, according to conventional wisdom.

     I have not addressed the issue of independents. I know they are out there I just don’t know what they stand for or care about.

Saturday 9-16-06, 12:25 am

      The election on Tuesday was very interesting for the NW Tucson area. We had open primary races for Congressional District 8 and challengers in the Republican primary for State Legislative District 26 (LD 26) with one open seat in the house. LD 26 includes the Foothills area from Craycroft west, north of River road, to I-10 up to the Pinal County line and included the retirement community of Saddlebrooke in Pinal. It includes the Town of Oro Valley and the eastern portion of Marana. The district has long been represented by moderate to liberal Republicans.

     There were a few surprises in the legislative races and serious challenges to the status quo. To summarize the outcome I am going to cover the winners and losers starting with losers.

The Tucson Association of REALTORS (TAR) and REALTOR PAC (RPAC.)

     They spent a fortune backing Huffman. I know real estate agents that received 20 mailings just from RPAC. They went all out for Steve and were running phone banks out the of the TAR offices. All that effort to lose. And I never heard once why Randy Graf was not just a good as Huffman on the issues. I suspect that the endorsement was an inside job and had little to do with the issues. PAC’s should not waste money like that unless the other guy is really bad for them on issues. Anyway they lost.

NRA Political Victory Fund.

     They did a post card mailing right as early balloting was starting endorsing Toni Hellon. Toni was good on their issue but so was the guy running against her, Al Melvin. Why send out a mailer when either candidate is fine on your issue? Waste of money. In the state house race they first endorsed Carol Somers and then either Lisa Lovallo or David Jorgenson. They urged members not to vote for F rated Pete Hershberger. David won followed closely by Pete. Carol and Lisa were distant third and fourth place. Little to no effect on the race.

Jim Kolbe

     He supported Huffman and Steve lost. Jim does not like the rules of the game and is taking his marbles home with him. He is not endorsing the Republican nominee. Not a big surprise but it makes Kolbe look petty.

National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC.) 

     If you are going to intervene in a primary do it for a good reason. They said Huffman was the only one who could win. Other than the absurdity of that comment, right before the primary a poll showed Huffman and Graf both losing to Giffords. Oh, so I guess we should have voted for Steve because he would lose by less. Despite all the support for Steve he lost and so did the NRCC. They went out on a limb and it broke on them. They fell to the ground and got hurt with nothing to show for it.

Arizona Republican Party Chairman Matt Salmon.

     Salmon made a last minute call that only mentioned Steve Huffman. It was a very thinly veiled endorsement. I doubt Graf supporters will take kindly to the gesture and don’t expect Shadegg or Franks to come to Salmon’s aid. State delegates from CD 26 and probably 30 will not be carrying the Salmon banner at the next party convention.

County Supervisor Ann Day.

     The State Senator from her County District (almost a twin of LD 26) will most likely be Al Melvin. Ann recently voted to continue to allow pornography in the public libraries. Now there is a losing issue in an area where the social conservative just got organized.

Car dealer and Republican insider Jim Click.

     Jim supported Steve Huffman. Steve lost despite all the bigwigs supporting him. Click’s candidate in the LD26 race came in 4th place in a 4-way race. I think they call that last.

Later the winners.

Thursday 9-14-06, 10:15 pm  (modified to note that Al Melvin is not yet in office)

Did you catch the quote in today’s Arizona Republic in which a Napolitano campaign consultant called Len Munsil a zealot? Here’s the quote:

Barry Dill, a Napolitano campaign consultant, responded in kind.

“Over the next eight weeks, we are confident that Len Munsil will be exposed for the inexperienced, out-of-the-mainstream zealot that he truly is,” Dill said.

Wow. Almost 232,000 votes cast for Republican conservatives Len Munsil and Don Goldwater and that’s the best the Napolitano camp can do? Imagine if the Bush administration had called a quarter million muslims zealots? Think of the outrage and outcry by Democrats.

Something tells me that the only thing Napolitano can run on is fear from people of faith. Calling Len Munsil a “zealot” will only further reinforce the notion that Dems are godless and see Christians as 2nd class citizens – big and probably politically-fatal mistake.

Anyone who knows Len Munsil, will tell you that Len is anything but a zealot. In fact the Len Munsil I know is one of the most compassionate gentlemen I’ve known. So I have to wonder if this tactic of faith-based discrimination will put Mr. Dill in a pickle with the Napolitano campaign.

One must remember that during the debates, it was Len who rebuked (now there’s a zealous word) the other minor candidates for speculating on Napolitano’s sexual orientation.

No, Len Munsil is no extremists and many more Arizonans will discover that his views are far more in line with their own views of raising a family in a safe and prosperous community.

      According to a post by Dan Nowicki at the Arizona Republican Jim Kolbe will not back Randy Graf.    

Thank God. The last time Kolbe endorsed a candidate he lost the race.

Wednesday 9-13-06, 10:35 am

A major disappointment from the people in legislative district 8 as Carolyn Allen and Michele “Ain’t Reagan” Reagan win their primaries against conservatives Colette Rosati and Carolyn Schoenrock. The only good news in this race is that John Kavanagh – another good conservative – beat out the socialist RINO Jim Burke. Another politico wannabe, Travis Junion, finished last with less than 10% of the vote.

Both Rosati and Schoenrock worked extremely hard and were outspent by huge margins. One of the downsides of running as a clean elections candidate is that you are limited in how much money you can receive AND that oftentimes, you receive matching funding way too late in the race. In fact, Schoenrock received two major clean elections checks yesterday – Election Day! Hardly enough time to produced and disseminate campaign materials!

Rosati is reported to say that she will not support Allen in the General Election. I agree with her. There is no difference between Allen and her opponent, Dan Oseran. The voters of LD 8 might as well play pin the tail on the donkey in the Senate race. Don’t count on Allen voting or supporting real Republicans in the legislature.

Perhaps the biggest factor in the LD 8 race was the turnout by the sexually oriented business crowd. The pro-strippers successfully turned out the vote by the same margin that defeated Rosati. I am extremely disappointed in the churches in LD 8 for not getting their people out to vote as they pledged in the days before the election. It should be clear by now that the community standards in Scottsdale are being set by strippers and rich, white, pro-abortion women.