In the absence of heavy polling sometimes you need to look at the little things to find out how a campaign is doing. Candidate forums do not usually win or loose a race but they are a great chance to talk face to face with motivated voters. 

     I brushed off the fact that Steve Huffman missed the Marana Chamber of Commerce forum back on May 18. Not all of Marana is in CD 8 and Steve was busy in the legislature pouring money into his bottomless-pit pet project known as Rio Nuevo. Plus it was May, why build name recognition early in a crowded primary? 

     When I read this article in the Arizona Daily Star I realized his campaign is in trouble. The forum was held in Quail Creek, a master planned retirement community just east of Green Valley. This is well within CD 8 and old people vote in greater numbers than other demographics. Apparently that fact is lost on the Huffman campaign. With 14 days until early balloting starts, Steve missed this forum. The event was sponsored by the Green Valley Republican Club and the Quail Creek Republicans. Not a good group to ignore when you are running for elected office and few of them have heard of you. (Steve served in the legislature about 1 hour drive north of Green Valley / Quail Creek area.) 

     Maybe Steve thinks his jumpy ads will save the day. Good luck! 

     I know some of the readers of this blog are Munsil supporters so please read the title of this post carefully. 

     Len recently cited the Battleground poll from WSJ/Zogby.  He failed to mention anther recent poll done by Behavior Research Center.  The Zogby poll shows Len doing about as well as Goldwater in a race with Janet. Len was correct to point out that his numbers have moved a lot more than Don’s have. 

     The poll from BRC is more detailed. It shows a huge number of undecided in the Republican Primary (we knew that.) It does show Don doing better than Len against Janet, by about 10 points among likely voters. But both of them receive a drubbing in the general, Don losses 28% to 57%. Len looses 18% to 58%. It is still early; vote by mail is 14 days away, so there is some time. 

     The truly amazing number is how Len is doing in Rural areas and Pima County.  It is bad enough that Munsil trails Don 16% to 22% in Maricopa County. The numbers for Rural are dismal, Don 25%, Len 3%.  Maybe the poll is invalid because Mike Harris is polling 8% of Rural primary voters. The worst number for Len is the * that he received in Pima County. That means he did not get more than 1% of Republicans in Pima County to express an interest in his candidacy. Pima County is certainly not the center of the Republican universe in Arizona but it does contain 14% of the state’s registered Republican. There are many pockets of conservatives in the county and they would be receptive to Len’s message. 

     Add to this the fact that inside sources in the Goldwater campaign say it is just a matter of when Don turns in his $5 forms, not if. Yes Len got his forms in much earlier but as soon as Don’s forms are approved he will get the same check for $453,849. My guess is that not much of it will go toward political consultants and most of it will go directly into advertising, just a guess. 

     Speaking of consultants maybe when Nathan is not busy throwing solid conservatives under the bus he could earn part of his $6,000 a month and get Len’s numbers in Pima County above 1%. I would not recommend that Nathan personally visit Southern Arizona. Colette Rosati has friends outside of Scottsdale and they will never forget what Nathan has done. 

     I don’t have a horse in this race. Both Len and Don would have positives and negatives in their race against Janet. The biggest negative is Janet’s popularity. Never the less no one likes to spend money on consultatnts so they can get an * in a poll.